The Silent Transition in Circular Debt: Fiscal Year Closes, Market Awaits Clarity

By MG News | July 01, 2025 at 11:07 AM GMT+05:00
By Hissan Ur Rehman
As Pakistan's fiscal year 2025 came to a close on June 30, a significant financial milestone outlined under the country's reform agenda— circular debt resolution— remains a focal point for policy watchers and capital market participants alike.
Estimated at Rs 2.4 trillion, or 2.1% of
GDP, the circular debt in the power sector has long posed a structural
challenge to energy supply chains, liquidity, and the financial performance of
listed public sector enterprises.
According to the IMF's Country Report No. 25/109 released in May 2025, the
Government of Pakistan committed to clearing the entire Rs 2.444 trillion in
circular debt by the end of FY25. This was to be achieved through a
multipronged strategy involving:
- Rs 348 billion in renegotiated payables with Independent Power Producers
(IPPs)
- Rs 254 billion in additional budgeted subsidies
- Rs 387 billion in waived interest liabilities
- Rs 1,252 billion in syndicated Islamic financing from a consortium of 18
commercial banks
The syndicated financing, in particular, was designed to unlock critical
payments to the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), which would then
trickle through the power supply chain, benefiting GENCOs, IPPs, SNGPL, and
ultimately state-owned oil marketing giants like Pakistan State Oil (PSO).
As of the first trading day of FY26, the capital markets are still awaiting
official confirmations from PSX-listed companies on the receipt of circular
debt payments. Companies like PSO, OGDC, and PPL have historically reported
significant receivables from the power sector.
For instance, PSO’s receivables
from SNGPL and the power sector stood at approximately Rs 732 billion as of Q3
FY25.
There are credible reports that the relevant ministries have issued letters to
state-owned enterprises, requesting internal reconciliation of circular debt
settlements.
This indicates administrative progress and backend alignment.
However, no material disclosures have been made public through the PSX, which
investors traditionally rely on for transparent and timely information.
To understand the potential impact, consider this: PSO is expected to receive
Rs 66.2 billion in pending receivables, which translates to approximately Rs
141 per share in cash terms based on current shareholding.
This inflow would
not impact earnings directly—since the revenue was recognized earlier—but it
would significantly strengthen PSO’s liquidity position, reduce debt reliance,
and enhance dividend-paying capacity.
At present, PSO’s Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio stands around 4.3x,
based on its trailing free cash flow of Rs 38.3 billion. If the Rs 66.2 billion
is received and market capitalization adjusts to reflect the stronger balance
sheet, this ratio could shift upward, though it would remain
competitively attractive relative to regional peers. This highlights the
importance of circular debt clearance not just from a policy standpoint, but as
a catalyst for valuation re-rating.
In parallel, PSO is reportedly entering a strategic joint venture with Hub
Power Company (HUBC), backed by China’s BYD group. The purpose: to roll out a
nationwide electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure using PSO’s widespread
retail footprint.
If executed successfully, this initiative could signal a
transformative pivot in PSO’s business model—from conventional fuel
distribution to next-generation energy solutions.
The circular debt resolution and EV infrastructure plan, taken together,
represent a confluence of balance sheet normalization and forward-looking
diversification.
While current disclosures are limited, the policy framework
and strategic direction suggest a promising outlook.
For investors and market participants, what matters now is timely
communication. Transparent signals from the companies and regulators involved
will further strengthen capital market credibility and investor confidence.
As Pakistan transitions into FY26, the groundwork laid in FY25—through fiscal
reforms, strategic partnerships, and sectoral modernization—may very well lay
the foundation for a re-rated energy sector.
But clarity and follow-through
will determine whether that potential translates into performance.
The writer is a graduate of LUMS and MBA in Consulting from UK. He teaches financial markets in Pakistan and can be reached at hissan3@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not
constitute investment advice.
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