Petrol set for minor relief, HSD faces Rs12 hike

July 10, 2026 (MLN): Local petroleum prices are projected to see a minor drop of Rs0.72 per litre for petrol and a substantial increase of Rs12.44 per litre for High-Speed Diesel (HSD) in the upcoming fortnightly review, driven by shifting global product costs.

The latest estimates come on the heels of an unexpected move on July 4, 2026, when the federal government cut the ex-depot prices of both products by Rs1.97 per litre each, bringing petrol to Rs297.53 and HSD to Rs309.50 per litre.

This completely bypassed market expectations from the previous tracking period, which had estimated an Rs11.54 per litre drop for petrol and an Rs4.21 per litre increase for HSD.

According to the latest data, the derived ex-refinery price for petrol marginally decreased from Rs198.80 to Rs198.09 per litre, indicating minor consumer relief.

Conversely, the ex-refinery cost for HSD jumped by Rs12.44 per litre, climbing from Rs214.74 to Rs227.18 per litre as international free-on-board (FOB) values rose by $7.14 per barrel.

These developments align with a broader structural shift in Pakistan’s energy pricing.

At the start of the fiscal year on July 1, the Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) adjusted the levy structure by raising the Climate Support Levy (CSL) by Rs2.50 per litre to Rs5.00 per litre on petrol, HSD, HOBC (97 RON), and furnace oil.

To keep initial retail prices unchanged, the government reduced the Petroleum Levy (PL) by an identical Rs2.50 per litre, bringing it to Rs64.14 for petrol and Rs77.04 for HSD.

Amid these fiscal adjustments, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik briefed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Petroleum on a comprehensive deregulation roadmap.

The government plans to gradually transition away from state-controlled fuel pricing toward a market-driven mechanism, enhancing supply chain transparency through digitalization and potentially displaying daily Platts benchmark prices.

The minister highlights that the country remains highly vulnerable to international market shocks, as Pakistan relies on imports for roughly 70% of its petrol and 33% of its diesel consumption.

Recalling a recent regional conflict, Malik noted that while crude oil traded near $71 per barrel and diesel near $78 per barrel prior to the crisis, subsequent freight and premium spikes pushed gasoline to between $180 and $190 per tonne.

While crude prices have since settled below pre-conflict levels, refined product costs remain elevated due to import premiums.

On IMF commitments, the minister stated that the petroleum levy on petrol has exceeded Rs80 per litre.

However, he expressed confidence that current engagements with the IMF would ensure the energy sector’s circular debt does not increase by the close of the fiscal year.

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