Oil prices slide on Ukraine-Russia ceasefire hopes

November 27, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as hopes for a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire sparked expectations that Western sanctions on Russian oil exports could be eased. Trading, however, remained subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Brent crude futures went down by $0.12, or 0.19%, to $63.01 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.06, or 0.10%, to $58.59 per barrel by [1:10 pm] PST.

Both Brent and WTI crude futures had gained about 1% on Wednesday as investors weighed oversupply concerns alongside the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, along with senior officials, is scheduled to visit Moscow next week to discuss a potential framework to end the nearly four-year conflict in Ukraine, Europe’s deadliest since World War II.

Despite these efforts, a senior Russian diplomat indicated on Wednesday that Moscow is unlikely to make significant concessions in any peace agreement, following the leak of a call where Witkoff reportedly advised Moscow on pitching the deal to former President Donald Trump, according to the CNBC.

Analysts say a ceasefire could ease fears of supply disruptions tied to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.

“Any Ukraine-Russia deal could quickly push Brent crude prices down to around $60 per barrel,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Dhar added that a ceasefire would also allow Russian refineries to resume normal operations as Ukraine’s drone attacks subside.

U.S. crude inventories also rose more than expected, adding pressure on oil prices.

According to the Energy Information Administration, crude stocks climbed by 2.8m barrels to 426.9m barrels last week, significantly higher than the anticipated 55,000-barrel increase, driven by imports reaching an 11-week high.

Additionally, U.S. energy firms reduced the number of active oil rigs by 12 to 407 this week, the lowest count since September 2021, signaling a well-supplied market, according to Baker Hughes.

Looking ahead, OPEC+ sources indicated that the group is likely to maintain current production levels at its upcoming Sunday meeting.

Several members, which collectively account for roughly half of global oil output, have been incrementally increasing production since April to secure market share.

Supporting crude prices, however, are growing expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which could boost economic activity and increase oil demand.

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