Oil prices react to geopolitics

February 18, 2026 (MLN): Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday as renewed discussions between the United States and Iran sparked hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, while rising output from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field added to market pressures.

Brent crude futures went down by $0.22, or 0.33%, to $67.64 per barrel, according to data by Mettis Global.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increasing by $0.18, or 0.29%, to $62.51 per barrel by [10:55 am] PST.

Iranian and U.S. reached an understanding on key “guiding principles” during talks on Tuesday aimed at resolving the countries’ longstanding nuclear dispute.

However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi cautioned that an immediate agreement is not guaranteed, according to CNBC.

Political consultancy Eurasia Group highlighted the ongoing risks in a note, estimating a 65% probability of potential U.S. military action against Iran by the end of April.

Adding to the supply-side pressure, reports from Russian media indicated that production at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field, one of the world’s largest, is ramping up following a temporary halt in January.

Market participants are also awaiting U.S. inventory data later this week.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to release its weekly crude and fuel stock report today, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Thursday.

U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose by approximately 2.3 million barrels in the week ending February 13, while gasoline inventories may have fallen by around 200,000 barrels.

Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, are expected to have declined by roughly 1.6m barrels.

The combination of easing Iran tensions and rising Kazakh output continues to weigh on global oil prices, with traders closely monitoring weekly U.S. inventory reports for further direction.

Copyright Mettis Link News