Oil could hit $200/bbl if Iran, USA conflict drags on

March 27, 2026 (MLN):  Oil prices could surge to an unprecedented $200 per barrel if the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran continues into June and keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, according to Macquarie Group.

The bank estimates a 40% probability for this prolonged-war scenario, which would drive crude prices to historic highs in real terms.

In a more optimistic outlook, assigned a 60% likelihood, analysts led by Vikas Dwivedi suggest the conflict could conclude by the end of the current month, potentially easing pressure on global energy market, as reported by Bloomberg.

Brent crude has already been climbing sharply and is on track for its biggest monthly gain in March, as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt supply expectations.

Iran’s actions have led to an almost complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz a critical artery for global oil shipments causing severe constraints on energy flows.

Meanwhile, U.S President Donald Trump has delayed a decision on targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure by an additional 10 days, extending the deadline to April 6. As a signal of de-escalation, Iran recently permitted 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait.

It was noted that the partial closure of the waterway has already triggered sharp increases in both crude and refined fuel prices.

Prior to the conflict, roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil and an additional 5 million barrels of refined products moved through the strait each day, underlining the scale of disruption now facing global markets.

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