Tag: Traded increased
April 08, 2020: The Federal government has so far authorized to release Rs 7.109 billion for various ongoing and new projects of the Finance Division under its Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2019-20, as against its total allocation of Rs 11834.749 million.
Out of the total, Rs 800 has been authorized to be released for Construction of Sibbi Rakhni Road, out of its total allocations of Rs1000 earmarked for the current fiscal year.
Likewise, another Rs 800 million has been authorized for release to carry out work on Gwadar Development Authority for which Rs1000 were budgeted in the current fiscal year whereas an amount of Rs 800 has been authorized for release for necessary facilities of fresh water treatment, water supply, and distribution Gwadar, for which Rs1000 million were earmarked, according to the data released by the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.
The ministry also provided authorization for release of Rs 640 to complete the dualization of road from GT Road (Samma) to Gujrat, for which Rs 800 million were allocated in the current budget.
The ministry also had given the approval to release of Rs 408 million for Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Mother and Child Health Care Centre, Nawabshah City out of its total allocations of Rs 408.199.
Out of the total Rs 400 million earmarked for Sea Water Desalination Plant at Gwadar (CPEC), the ministry authorized to release Rs 320 million whereas it had given approval to the releases of Rs 320 for Construction/Upgradation of Dirgi Shabozai Road, Balochistan (Federal Share 60%) for which Rs 400 million have been set aside for the current year.
The minister also had given authorization for releases of Rs 240 million for Expo Center Peshawar, Rs 250 for Establishment of Combined Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) for Industrial Areas of Karachi including Laying of Interceptor Sewers (33% Federal Share), Rs 313 for Khyber Institute of Child Health & Children Hospital (District Peshawar), Rs 240 million for widening and carpeting of BooniBuzand Torkhow Road Chitral, Rs 240 for dualization of Road from Bahawalpur to Yazman to Chandni Chowk (Length 35.00km) and Rs 263 million for Chao Tangi Small Dam.
It is pertinent to mention here that the Federal government has so far authorized release of Rs 467.24 billion for various ongoing and new social sector uplift projects under its Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2019-20, as against the total allocation of Rs 701 billion.
Under its development program, the government has released an amount of Rs 195.6 billion for federal ministries,
Rs 157.7 billion for corporations and Rs 34.2 billion for special areas, according to the latest data released by Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reform.
April 08, 2020: On Tuesday at Pakistan Mercantile Exchange Limited, PMEX Commodity Index slipped by another 133 points to settle at 3,278 level. The traded value of Metals, Energy and COTS/FX was recorded at PKR 7.397 billion and the number of lots traded was 12,734.
The major business was contributed by Gold amounting to PKR 4.867 billion, followed by Crude Oil (PKR 644.489 million), NSDQ 100 (PKR 397.079 million), DJ (PKR 392.812 million), Currencies through COTS (PKR 364.931 million), Silver (PKR 276.796 million), SP500 (PKR 246.303 million), Natural Gas (PKR 72.784 million), Japan Equity (PKR 65.384 million), Platinum (PKR 60.353 million) and Copper (PKR 8.407 million).
In agriculture commodities, 19 lots of Cotton amounting to PKR 16.511 million and 2 lots of Wheat amounting to PKR 9.236 million were traded.
April 08, 2020 (MLN): Pakistani rupee (PKR) appreciated by 14 paisa against US Dollar (USD) in today's interbank session as the currency closed the day's trade at PKR 167.76 per USD, against yesterday's closing of PKR 167.9 per USD.
The rupee traded within a very narrow range of 30 paisa per USD showing an intraday high bid of 167.90 and an intraday Low offer of 167.75.
Within the Open Market, PKR was traded at 167/168.50 per USD.
Meanwhile, the currency gained 63 paisa against the Pound Sterling as the day's closing quote stood at PKR 206.43 per GBP, while the previous session closed at PKR 207.06 per GBP.
Similarly, PKR's value strengthened by 31 paisa against EUR which closed at PKR 182.06 at the interbank today.
On another note, within the money market, the overnight repo rate towards close of the session was 11.00/11.25 percent, whereas the 1 week rate was 11.00/11.05 percent.
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April 08, 2020 (MLN): Buxly Paints has decided to extend its shutdown of the plant operations and offices till April 14, 2020, in compliance with directives of provincial governments to contain the spread of COVID-19 across provinces.
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April 08, 2020 (MLN): In an unprecedented time, COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the human and economic toll around the world which cannot be overstated, Whereas, a research report by Standard Chartered Global (SCG) expects that the worst of the impact to be felt in H1-2020, it could extend beyond this period.
The detailed global research forecasted global economic collapse in 1HCY20, followed by a painful recovery. The concentrated shock to China’s economy in Q1, and the rest of the world in Q2, is likely to be larger than for any single quarter during the 2007-09 i.e. Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period, the report added.
Illustrating the scale of the current economic challenges facing by the global economies, the research underscored that US initial jobless claims spiked to 6.65mn in the week ended 28 March, equivalent to 3.2% of the working-age population – six times the previous record of 0.5% set in September 1982. This followed a spike in the previous week to 3.28mn claims.
In Europe, sentiment and co-incident indicators are also indicating steep drop inactivity. In South Korea, signs of a slowdown in new coronavirus cases due to containment measures may presage a recovery in sentiment and activity data, following a similar pattern to China.
In emerging markets, where economic and health-care resources may be more limited, governments are implementing measures to ‘flatten the curve’ i.e. slowing down the rate of infection for the contagious disease through Lockdowns or stay-at-home which have been implemented in most of the globe.
Even if it is avoided, and more aggressive policies are being implemented around the world, 2020 is one of the worst years for the global economy in living memories.
Thus, Q2-2020 should mark the low point for the global recession, with most of the lockdowns happening then, as per research. With entire economic sectors at a standstill, the research quantified the full-year impact on GDP growth in event the of a one-month shutdown of all non-essential activities/ stay-at-home on economies; the negative impact for the full year ranges from -4.7 to -1.2ppt.
Given the huge scale of the economic shock, the magnitude of the economic stimulus being delivered is unsurprising. The most effective stimulus measures, fiscal and monetary measures, are likely to be those aimed at avoiding a spiral of mass layoffs and bankruptcies, particularly for SMEs (which employ most people around the world). Without such measures, this recession deeper than 2009, would likely end up in a depression.
The research expected global pandemic, recession to weigh on Pakistan as well as it lowered 2020 GDP growth forecast for FY20 from 2% to 1.5%. The full impact of the global recession is likely to be felt in H1-FY21. Therefore, it also lowered the FY21 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% (from 3.0%).
Pakistan, a major oil-importing rely on private domestic demand to drive growth. The research emphasized that virus-related disruptions and quarantines could mean a sharp hit to economic activity in Q2.
‘FX earnings from exports and remittances are likely to be hit. Although the initial impact on the current account (C/A) impact should be offset by lower oil prices, much would depend on how long disruptions to exports persist. A prolonged loss of FX revenue would significantly increase the risk of a wider C/A gap than we currently expect’, the report highlighted.
With regards to the IMF program, the research predicted the program will remain on track but the targets will have to be adjusted due to a disruption caused by a coronavirus. Pakistan has requested assistance under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) as IMF financing is likely to play a bigger role in helping to fight the crisis in the coming months.
The stimulus fiscal package by fed govt of PKR 1 trillion and monetary easing by 225 bps in March by State bank of Pakistan are somehow justified in response to the virus.
Considering the global-off sentiments which could lead to further capital flows from economy and costlier financing as traditional FX earnings decline is likely to pressure exchange rates against the USD, the fiscal deficit may widen. The research expects a fiscal deficit for FY20 to rise to 9% of GDP from 8%. The research emphasized that policymakers will need to balance fiscal and financial stability with growth.
Moreover, Standard Chartered research lowered USD-PKR forecasts for end-2020 and end-2021 to 180.0 and 190.0 (164.00 and 170.00 prior) to account for capital outflows and weaker FX earnings. Despite this, lower CPI inflation is forecasted to 11.6% for FY20 (from 12.5%) and 6.6% for FY21 (from 8.9%) to reflect lower oil prices as Pakistan is better placed to benefit from weaker oil prices due to the collapse of the OPEC+ agreement given limited tourism earnings.
The research expected a lower C/A deficit forecast for FY20 to 1.4% of GDP (from 1.9%) on a faster-than-expected import contraction and lower oil prices in Q4-FY20.
The aggressive quantitative easing measure of another 200bps are expected for the rest for FY20 given the sharper-than-expected slowdown and weaker inflation outlook in response to this crisis; the research lowered policy rate forecasts for end-FY20 and end-FY21 to 9.00% and 7.00%, respectively (from 13.25% and 10%).
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