Power: Total generation down by 4% YoY in Sep’20 owing to lower Hydel and LNG based production

November 10, 2020 (MLN): The overall power production during the month of September’20 decreased by 4%YoY and 10% MoM to 13,104 Gwh.

According to the latest data released by NEPRA, power generation through Coal jumped by 2% YoY to clock in at 2,283 Gwh, whereas, power production through RFO declined by 7% YoY or 55Gwh to 762 Gwh in September’20. The total generation through RFO during 1QFY21 settled at 2,415Gwh up by +15%YoY.

According to the report by IGI Securities, the decline RFO based generation was owing to lower generation from KAPCO Block II, GENCO Block III and Kohinoor Energy(cumulatively down by 350Gwh) while generation from KAPCO Block I, Pakgen, Attock Gen, Hub Plant, Atlasand NCPL was cumulatively up by 254Gwh.

The generation through Hydel and Gas/LNG dropped by 8% and 4% YoY respectively to 4,129 Gwh and 4,872 Gwh. This brings the total generation for 1QFY21 to 42,445 Gwh which was 1% YoY higher compared to same quarter last year, primarily led by 20%, 15% and 3% YoY incline in production through Coal, RFO and Hydel contributing 17%, 6% and 37% of the total power generation. While contribution from Gas/LNG based power generation is down to 31% as compared to 35% in 1QFY20, the report highlighted.

As per the report, the decline in Gas/ LNG based generation during the month under review was on the back of lower generation from a) GENCO II-III (contributing 214Gwh), KAPCO II-III(down by 195Gwh) and Saif (down by 88Gwh) while generation from other smaller IPPs increased during the month of Sep-20. This brings total generation in 1QFY21 to 13,100 Gwh down by 10%YoY led by lower generation from KAPCOI-III, GENCO I-III and smaller IPPs.

With regards to generation cost, total cost on RFO during the month was down by 25% YoY to Rs 12.45 per Kwh. While the power cost on LNG stood at Rs 6.79 per Kwh which was 39% YoY lower than the cost incurred in September 2019.

On monthly basis, the cost of generation remained relatively mixed, as the report underscores Hub, Narowal, NCPL, Liberty, PKGP and NPL witnessed a rise in fuel cost thus moving down int he merit order list. Moreover, mostly FO plants recorded a slight movement down the pecking order as generation cost of LNG plants went down by nearly 4%MoM. Coal plants remained relatively unchanged in the merit order list.

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