June 02, 2020: Trade negotiators from Britain and the EU embarked on a fourth round of post-Brexit negotiations Tuesday, but no-one in London or Brussels expects a breakthrough this week.
Instead, once the latest cross-Channel video conferences are over, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen will meet to decide how to proceed.
A “high-level” June meeting to take stock of the talks was already foreseen in the political declaration signed by both parties alongside the divorce accord last year.
But it may take on more urgency now, as talks between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart David Frost have revealed stark differences in approach.
Britain is not expected to ask for any extension to the post-Brexit transition and so is on track to leave the single market and EU customs union on December 31.
– 'Dead end' –
Barnier, the Brussels veteran and former French minister tasked by the remaining 27 EU members with negotiating an orderly Brexit, has said the week would have to show Britain's intentions.
“A crucial week ahead of us to make tangible progress across all areas, in line with the Political Declaration,” Barnier tweeted on Tuesday.
“A high-level meeting later this month will take stock of progress. I will brief the press on Friday.”
A European official, talking on condition of anonymity, warned: “It's not at all a decisive week, but a predictable one, which will just confirm we're at a dead end.”
– 'Independent state' –
Barnier has been given a mandate to seek an ambitious overarching agreement to oversee a so-called “level playing field” in manufacturing, labour and environmental standards.
This would give British firms access to most — but not all — of the benefits of the single market, without exposing their European rivals to attempts to undercut standards.
Frost and Johnson, however, say they only want a simple trade deal that would preserve UK sovereignty while allowing the vast majority of trade to remain tariff-free.
And, rather than placing this under the aegis of a unique EU-UK pact, they want to pursue a series of deals in separate sectors such as trade, fisheries, aviation and energy.
“We expect the round to be constructive and to keep the process on track ahead of the high-level meeting later this month,” a British spokesman said.
“However… it's clear that the EU needs to evolve its position to reach an agreement,” he warned.
Barnier has complained that Frost's more aggressive “tone” in pushing the British case in an exchange of letters last month could disrupt progress.
Brussels officials are annoyed that Britain has, in their eyes, backtracked on a written agreement to accept level-playing-field guarantees as part of a future trade deal.
But London insists the draft UK proposals meet these commitments, and complains the EU is refusing to offer the same kind of trade deal it signed with Canada or Singapore.
“A balanced solution is needed which reflects the political realities on both sides, and we will continue to make sure our position is understood,” the spokesman said.
“We won't agree to any EU demands for us to give up our rights as an independent state.”
With the sides camped out in conflicting visions of the way ahead, few experts expect this week's talks to bear fruit.
– Late compromise –
But, with so much at stake, nobody expects the talks to break down irretrievably either.
“Barnier and Frost are saying the same thing, a no deal is perfectly plausible. At the same time, both sides would prefer to have a deal,” said Anand Menon, director of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe.
He expected little from this week's talks, nor from Johnson and von der Leyen's meeting by the end of the month.
“They will probably say that both sides are willing to continue talking,” he told AFP. “If we get a compromise it will come very late in the talks, in the autumn.”