PACRA maintains entity ratings of AGP limited

October 24, 2023 (MLN): Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited (PACRA) has maintained entity ratings of AGP Limited (PSX: AGP) at "A+" for long term and "A1" for short term with a stable outlook forecast, latest press release issued by PACRA showed.

AGP Limited is an operating and holding company that operates under the umbrella of AGP group. It is one of the leading names in the pharmaceutical sector of Pakistan.

On a consolidated basis, AGP stands at 15th position in terms of revenue and 4th in terms of growth as per the latest IQQVIA report.

The company entered the pharmaceutical business in 1989. AGP is mainly owned by OBS Group (OBS) through Aitken Stuart Pakistan (Pvt) Ltd and a strategic and distribution alliance with international partner Muller & Phipps.

AGP has a pharma products portfolio more focused towards acute therapeutic segments, however, recent and future planned brand acquisitions will enable its presence in the chronic therapeutic segments as well.

The business growth is driven by organic portfolio growth and new brand acquisitions in the chronic disease segment.

The company has a strong corporate governance structure with established policies and procedures enabling efficient oversight and decision-making of the BoD.

On the executive front, AGP is run by a professional team having diversified exposure and extensive experience in the sector.

The healthcare services industry is considered a low-risk industry in view of limited demand cyclicality. CPI-linked pricing criteria have allowed an increase in prices with respect to inflation and indicated a positive sign for the sector.

However, the massive depreciation of PKR has diluted the sector’s profitability in recent years.

AGP has achieved impressive growth in its topline mainly on the back of brand acquisitions including a portfolio from Sandoz AG and a recent acquisition of 17 brands of Viatris Inc from Pfizer which will enhance the company’s product range and is expected to add a further PKR 3bln in the topline.

Ratings incorporate AGP's strong and sustained gross margins over the last three years along with sizeable cash flows to service their debt and meet the working capital requirements of the company.

However, the net margin has diluted marginally owing to a considerable increase in finance costs on the back of elevated interest rates. Currently, 86% of business is through a sole distributor, Muller & Phipps Pakistan (Pvt) Limited (M&P); going forward this concentration risk may pose challenges.

Moreover, the comfort can be taken from the presence of M&P's shareholding in AGP.

Capital structure is moderately leveraged where borrowings are comprised of a mix of both long-term and short-term to support brand acquisitions and meet working capital requirements.

The financial risk profile is expected to improve further as the company enters the consolidation phase in the future after acquisitions.

Also, the benefits of the recent price hike on the basis of special CPI allowed are yet to be seen.

The ratings are dependent on the continued sustainability of profits and market share. The adequacy of cash flows and the availability of alternative resources to make debt-related payments remains critical.

Meanwhile, compliance with internally-defined leveraging metrics is a prerequisite.

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