Oil prices jump amid geopolitical tensions

May 20, 2024 (MLN): Oil prices jumped on Monday on top of last week's gain as geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East came back into focus following weekend attacks.

Brent crude traded near $84 per barrel, up by 0.88% on the day. Last week it gained 1.45%.

While West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $78.2 per barrel, down by 1.34% on the day.

Ukraine continued its drone attacks on Russia’s refining on Sunday, while a China-bound oil tanker was hit by a Houthi missile in the Red Sea on Saturday, as Bloomberg reported.

In Iran, President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said there “won’t be any disruption to the country’s affairs” as a result of the incident.

“The market has become increasingly numb to geopolitical developments, and the large amount of spare OPEC production is likely contributing to this,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore.

“We may have to wait for further clarity from OPEC+ on its output policy to break out of the range,” he added.

Global benchmark Brent is around 9% higher this year due to OPEC+ supply cuts but prices have cooled since mid-April as geopolitical tensions eased.

Market watchers are turning their attention to the upcoming meeting by the producer group on June 01, but largely expect a rollover of existing curbs.

There’s increased bearishness among hedge funds, with money managers reducing their net long positions on Brent for a second week.

They are now the least bullish since January.

There was also a pullback on bets for rising gasoline prices ahead of the US summer driving season.

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