Oil prices dip but set for weekly gain on supply concerns

February 21, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices edged down on Friday but were still poised for a weekly rise on concerns over supply disruptions in Russia and an improving outlook for demand in the United States and China.

Brent crude futures decreased by $0.14, or 0.18%, to $76.34 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $0.43, or 0.59%, to $72.05 per barrel by [2:30 pm] PST. 

Brent would be marking a second week of gains after three weeks of declines. WTI is set to have its first week of gains after four weeks of declines.

Market focus was also on disruptions to oil supply, as Reuters reported.

Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30%-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station.

Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage on its main export route via Russia, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, industry sources said on Thursday.

It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

"Drawdowns of U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, along with concerns over tight supplies in Russia, are supporting oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

"Expectations for a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Moscow, have faded somewhat due to Ukraine's hardened stance, prompting some investors to buy back into the market," he added.

The feud between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump deepened earlier in the week after Zelenskiy criticized U.S. and Russian moves to negotiate a peace deal without Kyiv.

Trump also escalated tensions with comments blaming Ukraine for starting the three-year-old conflict with Moscow.

However, following a meeting with Trump's envoy for the Ukraine conflict on Thursday, Zelenskiy said Ukraine was ready to work quickly to produce a strong agreement on investments and security with the United States.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television on Thursday that Russia could win some relief from U.S. sanctions based on its willingness to negotiate an end to its war in Ukraine.

On the demand front, global oil demand has averaged 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd) through February 19, a 1.4mn bpd increase, JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Friday.

They expect cold weather in the U.S. and increased industrial activity in China as people return from holidays to contribute more demand in the coming week.

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