Oil jumps as OPEC+ delays output hike

November 04, 2024 (MLN): Oil rose on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month while tensions escalated again in the Middle East.

Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $74.4 a barrel after falling over 3% last week.

While West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $70.79 per barrel, up by 1.9% on the day.

The producer group had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels a day from next month, but they will now keep supply restrained for the rest of the year, Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of a “crushing response” in a speech on Saturday.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran told allies an attack would come after Tuesday’s US presidential vote but before January’s inauguration and wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones, as two previous strikes were.

“Concerns that OPEC was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a November 03 note. “A continuing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran raises the risk that oil facilities will be caught in the crosshairs.”

Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, with concerns of an oversupply next year and lackluster demand in top importer China weighing against unrest in the Middle East, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude.

While futures fell early last week after the strike by Israel on Iran avoided energy infrastructure, they later pared the decline on concerns the move lower was too strong.

The oil market has a number of key events on the horizon this week, including the US election and a meeting of China’s top legislative body.

Saudi Aramco is also scheduled to release its official prices for December, with the producer expected to lower its rates for Asia, according to a Bloomberg survey.

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