Monetary Policy – Market expects status quo

Committee to announce Monetary Policy tomorrow; status-quo expected

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has said the monetary policy will be announced on Friday, September 29^th.

Experts are of opinion that, given the inflation has been well within the expected range, the rates are to remain status quo.

CPI inflation increased by 3.4% on year-on-year basis in August 2017 as compared to an increase of 2.9% in previous month and 3.6% in August 2016, which fell short of industry expectations of 3.6%. On month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.2% in August 2017 as compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.3% in August 2016.

Analysts anticipate, inflation to stay within 4% YoY till Nov-17, and average at 4.3% in FY18 vs. 4.2% in FY17, maintainingexpectations of interest rate to raises to begin from Mar-18 with 3 hikes of 25bps each in 2018.

During last 16 months, Central Bank has kept the rates unchanged. Last year during the meeting held in May, 2016 State Bank decided to cut the rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent.

The rate was kept unchanged as inflation remained below target levels.

The members of the committee includes; Khawaja Iqbal Hassan (Member SBP Board), Mr. Ardeshir Khursheed Marker (Member SBP Board), Mr. Mohammad Riaz (Member SBP Board), Mr. Riaz Riazuddin
(Deputy Governor, Policy), Mr. Jameel Ahmad (Deputy Governor FM, IB & SI), Mr. Inayat Hussain (Executive Director - FS & BSG), Dr. Asad Zaman (External Member), Dr. Qazi Masood Ahmed 
(External Member), Dr. Aliya Hashmi Khan (External Member) and Mr. Mohammad Mansoor Ali
(Corporate Secretary).