Economic Survey to confirm dismal Economic Performance

June 8, 2019 (MLN): The Economic Survey for the financial year 2018-19 is set to be released on June 10, 2019, which is likely to confirm that virtually all economic targets were missed with poor policy decisions of the past and indecision in addressing an alarming fiscal situation finally catching up with the economy.

Key Figures expected are:

• The Economic Growth Target set by the previous government was 6.3 percent, against this the actual growth is expected to be 3.3 percent, with the manufacturing sector sliding by 0.30 percent.
• Large Scale Manufacturing declined by 2 percent compared to a targeted growth of 8.1 percent.
• Service sector grew by 4.7 percent against a target of 6.5 percent
• The construction sector declined by 7.6 percent, while the original target for the year had anticipated a growth of 10 percent.
• The agriculture sector grew by only 0.8 percent, the target being 2.8 percent.
• The main commodity producing sector slid by 6.5 percent, while other commodities grew by 1.5 percent, with the target being a growth of 3.5 percent.
• Cotton output decreased by 12.70 percent against a target of 8.9 percent growth.
• Livestock grew by 3 percent against a target of 3.8 percent

On the back of strong economic growth in 2018, and with it being an election year, the previous government had set a rather ambitious growth target, however, for 2019-20, the incumbent government has set a growth figure more consistent with reality, although arguments can be made to the contrary.

Expected Targets For FY20

• Overall economic growth target to be set at 4.0 percent.
• Manufacturing sector growth target 2 percent, with Large Scale Manufacturing sector target being 2.8 percent and service sector growth expected at 4.8 percent.
• Construction growth target for new fiscal year to be set at 1.5 percent.
• Agricultural sector expected to grow by 2.9 percent in new fiscal year.
• Main commodities production for 2019-20 to be set at 3.5 percent.
• Cotton output to grow by 3.1 percent
• Target for Livestock for 2019-20 to be set at 2.5 percent

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