Dollar hits yearly low, gold soars on anticipation of major Fed rate cut

September 13, 2024 (MLN): The dollar slumped to its lowest this year on Friday versus the yen while gold hit a record high as investors ratcheted up bets for a super-sized Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, as Reuters reported.

Shares in Asia also advanced after traders raised bets back to 45% for a 50-basis point U.S. rate cut on Sept. 18, according to LSEG data, from about 28% before articles in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal each called the decision "a close call".

Influential former New York Fed President Bill Dudley later said at a forum in Singapore "there's a strong case for 50."

"This is yet another twist in the (Fed rate cut) debate," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, noting the tug-of-war being played out in bond futures and the dollar-yen rate in particular.

"Everybody thought we were back on track for 25 basis points, and now 50 is suddenly back on the table."

The dollar dropped as much as 0.81% to 140.645 yen, the weakest level since December 28.

The yen has also been supported this week by hawkish comments from Bank of Japan officals, with policy board member Naoki Tamura on Thursday saying he was "worried that upside inflation risk was heightening."

The dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen and five other major rivals, dropped to a one-week trough at 101.00.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong says current pricing for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) easing is too high.

"We continue to favour a 25 bp cut over a 50 bp cut, because the labour market and the broader economy remains resilient," she wrote in a note.

"Current market pricing is aggressive compared to the average FOMC rate cutting cycle outside of recessions. We, along with the consensus of U.S. economists, do not expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession."

The euro added 0.07% to $1.1083, building on Thursday's 0.57% advance after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pushed back on prospects of a rate cut in October, following a widely expected quarter-point reduction on Thursday.

Gold extended Thursday's 1.9% climb to reach a fresh record of $2,570.03, buoyed by the dollar's weakness.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rallied 0.48%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng led advances in regional markets, gaining 0.94%. Mainland Chinese blue chips added 0.09%, despite expectations that more weak economic data will be released on Saturday.

Australia's benchmark climbed 0.25%. South Korea's Kospi (.KS11), opens new tab edged down 0.1%.

Japanese stocks underperformed, though, dragged lower by the stronger yen, with the Nikkei losing 0.35%.

Japan, mainland China and South Korea are all heading into long weekends, with Tokyo back on Tuesday, China on Wednesday and South Korea not until Thursday.

U.S. stock futures added 0.1%, following gains on Thursday for the cash indexes.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures advanced 0.42%.

Crude oil continued to climb after surging around 2% overnight, as producers assessed the impact on output after Hurricane Francine tore through the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.71% to $69.46 per barrel, building on Thursday's 2.5% rally. Brent crude futures added 0.65% to $72.44, after a 1.9% jump in the previous session.

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