June 28, 2024 (MLN): Headline inflation is expected to inch slightly higher to around 12.3% YoY in June 2024.
After two consecutive monthly declines, MoM inflation is projected to rise by 0.25%. That compares with the last 12-month average increase of 0.95% MoM.
Accordingly, this will take the average yearly inflation of fiscal year 2023-24 to 23.4% YoY compared to last year's average inflation of 29.2%.
| National Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2024E | Indices | |||||
| Weight | YoY | MoM | Jun-2024 | May-2024 | Jun-2023 | |
| Headline CPI | 100% | 12.34% | 0.25% | 255.42 | 254.78 | 227.37 |
| Food & Non-alcoholic Bev. | 34.58% | 0.96% | 0.11% | 264.30 | 264.01 | 261.78 |
| Alcoholic Bev.& Tobacco | 1.02% | 4.71% | 1.88% | 373.56 | 366.68 | 356.77 |
| Clothing & Footwear | 8.60% | 17.07% | 0.30% | 240.19 | 239.46 | 205.16 |
| Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Fuels | 23.63% | 35.08% | 1.33% | 239.77 | 236.63 | 177.51 |
| Furnishing & Household Equipment Maintenance | 4.10% | 12.03% | 0.05% | 267.54 | 267.41 | 238.81 |
| Health | 2.79% | 19.65% | 1.26% | 244.21 | 241.17 | 204.10 |
| Transport | 5.91% | 8.22% | -4.09% | 302.18 | 315.06 | 279.24 |
| Communication | 2.21% | 13.51% | 0.03% | 134.31 | 134.27 | 118.33 |
| Recreation & Culture | 1.59% | 7.18% | -0.04% | 262.17 | 262.27 | 244.60 |
| Education | 3.79% | 15.53% | 0.01% | 199.02 | 199.00 | 172.26 |
| Restaurants & Hotels | 6.92% | 12.86% | 0.62% | 268.87 | 267.22 | 238.22 |
| Miscellaneous | 4.87% | 13.91% | 0.35% | 283.78 | 282.79 | 249.12 |
The Food index is projected to inch up by 11 basis points (bps) on a monthly basis.
Major changes include a decline in the prices of wheat, rice, bread, and garlic. However, this fall is offset by a significant surge in the price of tomatoes, which has increased by over 65%.
Meanwhile, Transport index is anticipated to decrease significantly by 4.1% amid deflated fuel prices.
The Housing Index is projected to rise 1.33% due to a rise in electricity charges, primarily attributable to the FCA adjustment in electricity costs.
Inflation Sensitivity
If consumer prices rise an average 0.5% a month going forward, annual inflation will drop to about 3.4% by end-December 2024.
With a 0.95% monthly increase, which is the last 1-year average, annual inflation will fall to about 6.6% by December.
Meanwhile, with an average monthly increase of 1.84%, which is the last 2-year average, annual inflation will stand at 13.4% by December.
The following chart maps out the yearly inflation trajectory based on monthly inflation rates of 0.5%, 0.95%, and the last 2-year average of 1.84%
Copyright Mettis Link News
Posted on: 2024-06-28T16:53:03+05:00
