Uncertain monsoon raises alarm for agriculture, economy

June 19, 2026 (MLN): An uncertain and shifting monsoon pattern could pose serious risks to Pakistan’s agriculture sector and broader economic stability, experts warned on Thursday, stressing the need for proactive planning and stronger climate risk management frameworks.

The concerns were raised during a policy dialogue organised by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), where participants from academia, government bodies and development organisations examined the growing impact of climate change on agricultural output and rural livelihoods.

Experts noted that climate change has become a major cross-cutting economic challenge, influencing productivity, inflation, employment and overall growth, according to APP.

They cautioned that disruptions in monsoon behaviour could significantly affect agriculture-dependent communities and weaken economic resilience.

It was highlighted that agriculture accounts for more than 23% of Pakistan’s economy and remains one of the largest employers, yet it is highly vulnerable to climate variability.

Participants emphasised the importance of shifting from reactive disaster response to a more integrated system focused on preparedness and long-term resilience.

Findings from a recent assessment shared during the discussion indicated that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are already impacting both rain-fed and southern irrigated regions, including southern Punjab and interior Sindh.

These areas were described as being at the intersection of high climate vulnerability, food security concerns and structural development challenges, requiring targeted policy attention.

Seasonal outlooks presented by meteorological experts suggested above-normal temperatures and the possibility of below-average rainfall.

However, it was also cautioned that reduced rainfall does not eliminate the risk of extreme weather events, including heavy downpours and flash floods, highlighting the need for improved, localized weather advisories for farmers.

Representatives from disaster management authorities pointed out that economic losses from climate-related events are increasing due to gaps in preparedness, land-use planning and infrastructure resilience.

They stressed the importance of linking early warning systems with timely response mechanisms to reduce damage.

A key concern raised during the dialogue was the widening gap in adaptation financing. Participants called for greater investment in resilience-building measures such as agricultural insurance and increased private-sector participation to reduce vulnerability across farming communities.

Attention was also drawn to the livestock sector, which plays a significant role in agricultural value addition but remains exposed to heat stress, disease outbreaks and flooding.

Experts suggested climate-smart feeding practices and expanded insurance coverage to safeguard livestock assets and improve productivity.

The need for an integrated data system combining meteorological, agricultural and disaster-risk information was also emphasised, with experts highlighting the role of technology in improving decision-making and strengthening farming resilience.

In addition, behavioural factors influencing farmers’ response to climate risks were discussed, with a focus on improving communication and trust to encourage adoption of adaptive practices.

Participants collectively stressed the importance of stronger institutional coordination, increased research and innovation, and effective policy implementation at all levels.

They concluded that timely investment, improved resource management and greater use of technology will be essential to protecting agricultural productivity and ensuring sustainable economic growth amid evolving climate risks.

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