Stocks, currencies eye best week in 5 months as Biden edges closer to victory

November 5, 2020: Emerging market stocks and currencies were set for their best weekly gains in five months on Friday, as Democratic candidate Joe Biden inched close to winning a tight U.S. election that has also weakened bets for a major U.S. fiscal stimulus.

MSCI's index for emerging market stocks has risen 6% so far this week, while currencies are up 1.3%, driven by Asian and other markets seen as benefiting from the potential departure of Donald Trump from the White House.

Mexico's peso, sensitive to Trump's drive to keep jobs in the United States and impose more tariffs on trade, has gained 2% this week while China's yuan has seen its best performance in a month, gaining more than 1%.

"The large bounce in equities this week creates an opportunity for investors to reassess and rebalance their portfolios in preparation for a President Biden and divided Congress," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The prospect of a divided Congress has also strengthened expectations that the burden of economic stimulus over the months ahead would remain with the Federal Reserve and other central banks funnelling yet more cash into the financial system.

The more bonds the Fed buys, the more tends to trickle to higher-yielding emerging markets like Indonesia, South Africa or Mexico.

Elsewhere, Russia's rouble, expected to weaken if Trump loses the presidency, has been bolstered by oil prices this week. It was down 0.4% against the dollar on Friday but up almost 3% this week.

Turkey's lira, which has struggled for months, shed 0.3% and was on track for its tenth weekly loss, after a media report said Turkey's Finance Minister Berat Albayrak ruled out an intervention to support the currency.

Goldman Sachs estimated Turkey has spent $101 billion to intervene in its currency markets so far this year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley say credit supply in emerging markets dropped significantly this week, but expect a pick-up in the coming weeks, given the conducive market backdrop, "with expectations of $25 billion worth of sovereign supply and around $5 billion worth of quasi sovereign supply materializing before end of the year."

Hungary's forint dropped against the euro, leading declines among Central European currencies while the Czech crown edged lower against the euro a day after the country's central bank held interest rates as expected.

Reuters