Stock futures rise despite escalating Israel-Iran tensions

June 16, 2025 (MLN): Stock futures rose early Monday as the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran spiked oil prices and raised investors’ concerns about the global economy.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures moved up 63 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures added 0.24%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.36%. WTI crude oil futures surged 1.11%, trading around $73.79 a barrel.

Traders have been closely watching the Middle East after Israel’s strike on Iran last week. Iran launched missiles in retaliation, increasing the severity of conflict in the region.

That prompted a sell-off in stocks on Friday, with the Dow tumbling more than 700 points in the session.

All three of the major indexes dropped more than 1% in the trading day.

Friday’s declines pulled the three indexes into red territory for the week.

The Dow finished the week down 1.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Oil prices jumped following Israel’s attack. Gold prices also rallied, as the metal is considered a safe haven trade that investors flock to in times of market volatility.

The attacks continued through the weekend, with the two countries targeting each others’ energy facilities, an escalation which could rattle the global economy and markets further in the new week.

Iran said it is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the global oil market, as CNBC reported.

“The strikes represent the largest attack on Iranian territory since the 1980s,” Ed Mills, Raymond James’ Washington policy analyst, wrote to clients in a note.

“The risks of regional escalation are heightened; the extent to which hostilities could spread is likely contingent on the extent of U.S./Russian impacts/involvement in the coming weeks and days.”

Investors will monitor manufacturing survey data due Monday morning, which comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 97% likelihood of the central bank keeping rates unchanged, per CME’s FedWatch tool, even as President Donald Trump has been pressuring Fed Chief Jerome Powell for a rate cut.

Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict likely further reduce the odds the Fed will ease monetary policy anytime soon.

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