Security fears cloud Reko Diq

February 12, 2026 (MLN): Barrick Gold Corporation's highly anticipated Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan's Balochistan province faces an uncertain future after the company announced it is reviewing the development timeline and capital budget due to "escalating security risks.”

The disclosure has raised concerns about Pakistan's ability to retain major foreign investments, particularly in the resource-rich but security-challenged Balochistan region.

Barrick has invested $849 million in Reko Diq to date, including $721 million in 2025 alone, against a Phase 1 budget of approximately $6 billion for what would become one of the world's largest copper mines.

The company had targeted signing a limited recourse project financing facility in the second half of 2025.

UBS analyst Daniel Major noted in his research report that "following management changes, in our view Barrick's commitment to the project is less certain," though he added that the $650 million in capital expenditure earmarked for 2026 "is a sign Barrick is committed."

JPMorgan's Bennett Moore echoed these concerns, stating that "while Reko Diq is under review amid recent security incidents, which likely delays finalizing the financing package, we view ~$650M in capex earmarked for this year as a sign Barrick is committed."

Security Challenges in Balochistan

The Reko Diq project is located in Chagai district of Balochistan province, a region that has experienced periodic security incidents and separatist insurgency.

While Barrick did not specify the nature of the "recent security incidents" referenced in analyst reports, the acknowledgment of "escalating security risks" represents a significant development for a project that Pakistani authorities have championed as transformative for the national economy.

The mine is expected to produce approximately 200,000 tonnes of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold annually once operational, with reserves estimated to support mining operations for several decades.

The project could generate billions of dollars in tax revenue and royalties while creating thousands of direct and indirect jobs in one of Pakistan's poorest provinces.

The delay at Reko Diq also highlighted Pakistan's competitive disadvantage compared to other mining jurisdictions.

Pakistani government officials have not yet publicly commented on Barrick's security review announcement.

However, the development is likely to trigger high-level discussions between federal authorities, Balochistan provincial government, and Barrick management.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment has turned cautious. Concerns over potential delays to one of Pakistan’s largest foreign investment projects have weighed on broader market confidence.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed selling pressure as investors reassessed risk exposure linked to the mining sector and the country’s external financing outlook.

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