Petrol to rise by around Rs8, HSD eyes massive Rs48 spike

July 14, 2026 (MLN): Pakistani consumers are to face another heavy blow at the pumps as petrol is projected to rise by Rs7.78 per litre, while High-Speed Diesel (HSD) is estimated to jump by a staggering Rs47.81 per litre in the upcoming pricing review.

The estimates attribute the looming price hikes to a sharp spike in global oil prices.

The latest estimates come shortly after the government raised retail prices on July 11, 2026, boosting HSD by Rs13.80 per litre and petrol by Rs13.18 per litre.

Those increases completely bypassed prior market estimates, which had anticipated a minor petrol price drop of Rs0.72 per litre and a relatively moderate HSD hike of Rs12.44 per litre.

Currently, petrol is available at Rs310.71 per litre, while HSD stands at Rs323.30 per litre.

According to data dated July 14, 2026, the derived ex-refinery price for PMG (petrol) is expected to climb from Rs202.35 to Rs210.13 per litre, reflecting a variance of Rs7.78 per litre.

Meanwhile, the ex-refinery price for HSD is set to skyrocket, rising by Rs47.81 per litre from Rs226.58 to Rs274.39 per litre, driven by a sharp $27.36 per barrel increase in international free-on-board (FOB) costs.

These developments align with a broader structural shift in Pakistan’s energy pricing.

At the start of the fiscal year on July 1, the Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) adjusted the levy structure by raising the Climate Support Levy (CSL) by Rs2.50 per litre to Rs5.00 per litre on petrol, HSD, HOBC (97 RON), and furnace oil.

To keep initial retail prices unchanged, the government reduced the Petroleum Levy (PL) by an identical Rs2.50 per litre, bringing it to Rs64.14 for petrol and Rs77.04 for HSD.

Amid these fiscal adjustments, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik briefed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Petroleum on a comprehensive deregulation roadmap.

The government plans to gradually transition away from state-controlled fuel pricing toward a market-driven mechanism, enhancing supply chain transparency through digitalization and potentially displaying daily Platts benchmark prices.

The minister underscored that the country remains highly vulnerable to international market shocks, as Pakistan relies on imports for roughly 70% of its petrol and 33% of its diesel consumption.

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