Oil slips as Russia restarts exports; Ukraine strikes keep risks high

November 17, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices eased as trading opened on Monday after Russia resumed crude loadings at the Novorossiysk export terminal, ending a two-day halt caused by a Ukrainian drone strike on the Black Sea facility.

Brent crude futures went down by $0.09, or 0.14%, to $64.30 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.27, or 0.16, to $59.93 per barrel by [1:05 pm] PST.

The brief suspension along with disruptions at a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal had pushed both Brent and WTI up more than 2% on Friday, helping them finish the week slightly higher. The shutdown affected nearly 2% of global crude supply.

Industry sources and LSEG shipping data confirmed that operations at Novorossiysk restarted on Sunday. Still, markets remain on edge as Ukraine continues to target Russian energy sites.

Over the weekend, Ukraine’s military reported hitting Russia’s Ryazan refinery, while Kyiv’s General Staff said another strike damaged the Novokuibyshevsk plant in the Samara region. Analysts say these attacks could influence Russia’s export outlook in the months ahead.

“Investors are assessing how repeated Ukrainian strikes might impact Russia’s crude flows in the long run,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

Western sanctions are another major factor shaping expectations. The United States has imposed restrictions barring transactions with Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, aiming to pressure Moscow toward negotiations over the Ukraine conflict.

President Donald Trump also signaled on Sunday that Republicans are drafting legislation to penalize any country conducting business with Russia and suggested Iran may be included in future sanctions.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ recently confirmed that its December production target will rise by 137,000 barrels per day, mirroring the increases for October and November. The alliance plans to pause further hikes in the first quarter of 2026.

In a new outlook, ING said the oil market is likely to stay in a substantial surplus through 2026. However, it cautioned that supply risks are intensifying due to drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The bank highlighted Iran’s seizure of a vessel in the Gulf of Oman a critical passage for roughly 20 million bpd of global oil shipments.

Positioning data shows speculators boosted net long ICE Brent holdings by 12,636 lots last week, bringing the total to 164,867 lots as of Tuesday. ING noted the increase was largely driven by short-covering, showing traders’ reluctance to bet against crude amid growing uncertainties around supply and sanctions.

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