Oil slides amid 2026 oversupply concerns

November 25, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices eased on Tuesday as concerns that supply could exceed demand in 2026 outweighed worries about restricted Russian shipments amid ongoing Ukraine war talks.

Brent crude futures went down by $0.30, or 0.47%, to $63.07 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.48, or 0.28%, to $58.56 per barrel by [1:10 pm] PST.

Both crude benchmarks had risen 1.3% on Monday as doubts over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal supported prices, limiting expectations for unrestricted Russian crude and fuel supplies under Western sanctions.

“Short-term, the key risk is oversupply, and current price levels appear vulnerable,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, according to CNBC.

New sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, along with restrictions on selling refined Russian products to Europe, have led some Indian refiners, including Reliance, to reduce Russian oil purchases.

With limited options, Russia is seeking to expand exports to China.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Moscow and Beijing are discussing ways to increase Russian crude shipments to the Chinese market.

Analysts remain focused on potential supply-demand imbalances. Deutsche Bank forecasts a 2026 crude oil surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day, with no clear path back to deficits even by 2027.

Oil markets are also finding some support from expectations that the U.S. may cut interest rates at its December 9-10 policy meeting, following signals from Federal Reserve members.

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