Oil prices surge on Trump Iran ceasefire warning

May 12, 2026 (MLN): Global crude oil prices climbed on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the fragile ceasefire with Iran was deteriorating, warning that the truce was effectively “on life support” following Tehran’s rejection of Washington’s peace proposal.

Currently, Brent crude futures are slightly lower by $0.65, or 0.62%, to $104.88 per barrel, according to data by Mettis Global.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are up by $0.77 or 0.79%, to $98.84 per barrel by [10:00 am] PST.

Speaking to reporters, Trump described Iran’s counteroffer as unacceptable and dismissed it in strong terms, saying it offered no realistic path to ending the conflict.

He compared the ceasefire’s condition to a critically ill patient with “a 1% chance of survival,” emphasizing escalating diplomatic tensions, as reported by CNBC.

Since the start of the U.S.- and Israel-led conflict with Iran on February 28, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have surged by more than 40%, showing growing fears of prolonged instability in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions.

Oil prices remain highly volatile and could climb further if negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue to stall.

Meanwhile, the energy market is also closely monitoring risks to global oil shipping routes. Warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted beyond mid-June, it could take years for global oil markets to fully stabilize.

Even if the key shipping corridor were reopened immediately, normalization would still take months.

However, any prolonged closure could push market recovery timelines into 2027, given the strategic importance of the waterway for global crude flows.

As geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, traders remain on edge, with energy markets highly sensitive to any developments in U.S.–Iran relations and broader Middle East tensions.

Copyright Mettis Link News