Oil prices steady as Geopolitical tensions offset supply concerns

September 22, 2025 (MLN): Crude prices held steady on Monday, with worries over tensions in Russia and the Middle East offset by fears of excess supply.ut

Brent crude futures went up by $0.40, or 0.60%, to $66.28 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.31, or 0.49%, to $62.37 per barrel by [4:10 pm] PST.

Poland’s armed forces reported that Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled early Saturday to secure national airspace after Russia carried out airstrikes in western Ukraine close to the Polish border.

The move followed an incident on Friday in which three Russian military aircraft entered NATO-member Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, four Western countries formally recognized a Palestinian state, drawing a sharp backlash from Israel and heightening tensions in the oil-rich region.

According to SEB analysts, global oil demand is expected to ease from the third to the fourth quarter and again into the first quarter of 2026, while OPEC+ production is on the rise.

“The critical question is whether China will absorb the surplus through stockpiling or if prices will be forced down into the $50 range. We lean toward the latter,” the analysts noted.

On the supply side, Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, has boosted crude exports under the group’s agreement, state marketer SOMO said Sunday.

Average exports for September are projected between 3.4m and 3.45m barrels per day.

Iraq has also granted initial approval for restarting pipeline oil flows from the Kurdistan region through Turkey after repeated delays.

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