NEC greenlights FY27 Macro Framework

June 11, 2026 (MLN): The Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) and the National Economic Council (NEC) have officially finalized Pakistan’s Macroeconomic Framework for the fiscal year 2026-27.

Charting a path toward gradual economic recovery, the government has set a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 4.0%, up from the 3.7% provisional growth recorded in the outgoing fiscal year (2025-26).

The newly approved targets, compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the Planning Commission, indicate that the nominal size of Pakistan's economy is projected to expand to Rs143,604 billion in the upcoming fiscal year, up from Rs126,870 billion in 2025-26.

Sectoral Projections

The framework maps out steady recoveries across all major economic pillars under constant basic prices:

• Commodity Producing Sectors: Targeted to expand by 3.9%, relying on rebounds in both agriculture and industrial output.
• Agriculture: After a provisional slowdown to 2.9% in 2025-26, the sector is targeted to bounce back to 3.8% in 2026-27. Growth will be heavily anchored by a recovery in Important Crops (targeted at 3.6% growth vs. 0.6% in the outgoing year) and a consistent Livestock performance projected at 3.9%.
• Industry: The industrial sector is eyeing a 4.0% growth rate. While Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is projected to cool slightly to 4.5% (compared to a strong 6.1% provisional turnaround in 2025-26), overall manufacturing remains steady at 5.8%.
• Services: Positioned as a major driver, the services sector is targeted to grow at 4.2%. This is supported by vital gains in Information and Communication (7.7%), Financial and Insurance Activities (4.5%), and Wholesale and Retail Trade (4.2%).

National Savings, Investment, and Inflation Risks

The framework highlights a deliberate focus on balancing domestic consumption with capital accumulation:

• Investment Outlook: Total investment is projected to increase to Rs. 21,519 billion, climbing to 15.0% of GDP (up from 14.4% in 2025-26). Private sector investment is anticipated to take the lead, rising to 10.3% of GDP, while public investment stabilizes at 3.0%.
• Savings and Inflows: National Savings are targeted at 14.3% of GDP (Rs. 20,475 billion). Concurrently, Net External Resource Inflows are projected to rise significantly to Rs. 1,044 billion (0.7% of GDP) to bridge the savings-investment gap amid easing import restrictions.
• Inflationary Pressures: Under the "Memo Items", the government anticipates a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), setting the inflation target at 8.2% for FY 2026-27, compared to the 7.1% provisional figure from the current fiscal year.
• Per Capita Income: Despite inflationary and external headwinds, the Gross National Product (GNP) per capita is projected to reach Rs590,917, marking a 10.7% nominal growth rate over the outgoing year's provisional figures.

The approved framework shows a conservative yet stabilizing fiscal strategy.

By prioritizing private sector investment and aiming for a balanced 4% growth path, the economic leadership is steering clear of aggressive, consumption-led growth in order to keep the current account deficit sustainable.

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