Inventory build in U.S. caps oil price moves

August 13, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, following a decline in the previous session, after industry data revealed a rise in U.S. crude inventories last week, signaling that the seasonal peak in summer demand is approaching its end.

Brent crude futures decreased by $0.12, or 0.18%, to $66.00 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fall by $0.33, or 0.52%, to $62.84 per barrel by [3:00 am] PST.  

U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.52 million barrels last week according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) data released Tuesday.

The figures also showed gasoline stocks declined while distillate inventories posted a slight increase.

If the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) official data due later on Wednesday confirms a drop in crude inventories, it could signal that demand during the summer driving season has peaked and refiners are beginning to scale back output.

The season typically spans from the Memorial Day holiday in late May through Labor Day in early September.

A Reuters poll of analysts forecasts that the EIA will report a crude inventory draw of roughly 300,000 barrels for the week.

Price sentiment was further pressured by production outlooks from both OPEC and the EIA on Tuesday, which projected higher global supply this year.

Both, however, anticipate that U.S. output the world’s largest will decline in 2026, while production in other regions continues to grow.

The EIA’s monthly report predicts U.S. crude production will reach a record 13.41m barrels per day in 2025, driven by improved well productivity, before easing in 2026 due to lower prices.

OPEC’s latest monthly forecast maintained its 2025 demand growth projection but lifted its 2026 estimate by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million bpd.

Meanwhile, the White House on Tuesday played down the likelihood of a rapid peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, a move that could prompt markets to reassess expectations for a swift end to the war and any relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil factors that have been supporting prices.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday for talks aimed at ending the conflict.

“Trump downplayed expectations for his meeting with President Putin... However, the market is seeing a continued decline in expectations for additional sanctions on Russian crude,” ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted.

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