Gold rebounds on softer oil, inflation outlook

June 18, 2026 (MLN): Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session, as easing crude oil prices helped soften inflation expectations and boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.

Currently, spot gold is down 0.80% to $4,304.03 an ounce as of [11:31 am] PST, according to data reported by Mettis Global.

The rebound came after oil markets slipped on news of a temporary U.S.-Iran understanding, which eased immediate geopolitical tensions and weighed on energy prices.

Lower oil costs tend to reduce inflationary pressure, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold.

The United States and Iran on Wednesday released details of a provisional agreement that extends an earlier ceasefire by 60 days, allowing both sides additional time to negotiate a more durable settlement.

However, tensions remain, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning of renewed military action if Iran fails to comply with the terms, according to CNBC.

Oil prices retreated following the announcement, reversing earlier gains triggered by Trump’s remarks suggesting a possible resumption of strikes if Iran’s leadership did not “behave.”

The volatility in crude markets continues to influence inflation expectations, which in turn affects gold’s appeal.

Gold typically struggles in high-interest-rate environments as it offers no yield. Investors are now increasingly pricing in the possibility of further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has signaled a more hawkish stance.

According to the Fed’s latest projections, nine out of 19 policymakers expect at least one rate increase this year.

Market expectations have also shifted sharply, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 85% probability of a U.S. rate hike in December, up from 61% before the Fed’s latest policy decision.

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