Gold bull run far from over, $6,300 target in sight

February 03, 2026 (MLN):  Gold’s powerful rally may have paused after last week’s dramatic correction, but the longer-term trajectory continues to point higher, with prices now seen approaching $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.

It was a week of extreme swings for precious metals: gold surged close to $5,600/oz mid-week before tumbling nearly 9% in a single session to settle near $4,900, while silver’s reversal was even more striking, plunging more than 25% from intraday highs near $120/oz back toward the mid-$80s.

The sudden sell-off followed a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar after renewed confidence in upcoming U.S. monetary policy leadership as Kevin Warsh was nominated for the next Fed Chair, which triggered heavy profit-taking in metals that had become technically overextended.

The speed of the decline reflected not just fresh catalysts, but also the rapid acceleration in prices over the preceding weeks that had left both metals vulnerable to a reset.

In its latest global market strategy report, JPMorgan reiterated a firm bullish stance on gold, stressing that the broader structural drivers behind the rally remain intact despite the turbulence.

The bank highlighted sustained central-bank accumulation, continued investor diversification away from paper assets, and resilient demand for real-asset hedges as the core pillars supporting higher prices.

While gold is trading in what the report describes as “thinner air” at historically elevated levels, the advance is not yet considered at risk of collapsing under its own weight.

The metal continues to serve as a multi-purpose portfolio hedge against inflation, currency volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty  roles that remain highly relevant in today’s macroeconomic environment.

Silver, however, presents a more cautious near-term picture. Unlike gold, it lacks consistent structural buying support from central banks, making it more exposed to sharp short-term swings.

The recent plunge shows how quickly sentiment can shift in the smaller and more volatile silver market, where the risk of over-correction runs in both directions.

Even so, silver appears to have established a higher average floor in the $75–$80 per ounce range and is seen as unlikely to fully surrender the bulk of its recent gains.

Demand trends in Asia have played a significant role in silver’s recent price action. Strong investment interest in both China and India reflected in local price premiums and robust import flows helped drive the earlier surge.

Upcoming seasonal and policy events, including China’s Lunar New Year trading lull and India’s budget decisions on import duties, are expected to influence where silver ultimately finds near-term support, according to the report.

Looking further ahead, gold’s bullish outlook is underpinned by expectations of sustained official and investor demand. Forecasts point to over 700 tonnes of average quarterly central-bank and investor demand, with central-bank purchases alone projected near 800 tonnes in 2026. 

Silver’s longer-term fundamentals, meanwhile, could begin to shift under higher price pressures. With industrial applications accounting for roughly 60% of total demand, elevated costs are expected to encourage substitution and increased recycling.

Estimates in the report suggest solar-sector silver demand could decline by around 30% year-on-year, equivalent to roughly 60 million ounces, while recycling supply may rise by about 14%, or nearly 28 million ounces.

These adjustments could gradually narrow the supply deficit that fueled silver’s rapid catch-up with gold, potentially pushing the gold-to-silver ratio back toward the 70–75 range over time.

Despite short-term turbulence, gold continues to draw strength from enduring diversification trends and resilient long-term investor demand, reinforcing its position as the dominant safe-haven asset even amid sharp market swings.

Copyright Mettis Link News