Fitch flags potential winners, losers in APAC amid Gulf supply shock

March 04, 2026 (MLN): Fitch Ratings warns that Asia-Pacific (APAC) commodity issuers could see divergent credit impacts if the Iran conflict prolongs, disrupting Gulf energy supply and shipping.

Upstream oil and gas producers are likely to benefit from higher prices, while downstream, energy- and feedstock-intensive sectors such as refiners, chemicals, fertilizers, and some metals face margin pressures and potential working-capital strain.

Shipping interruptions could worsen the situation, delaying deliveries and leaving goods stranded at sea.

Fitch identifies an extended Strait of Hormuz shutdown as the primary tail risk, though most disruptions are expected to be brief.

Producers in Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia could see a boost as buyers scramble for immediate alternatives, benefiting issuers such as Santos (BBB/Stable), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (BBB-/Stable), and PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (BBB/Stable) through higher prices and stronger cash flow.

In contrast, refiners may experience margin and cash-flow pressures if input costs rise faster than they can pass them to customers.

This risk is greater where fuel prices are regulated or crude supplies are constrained, affecting Indian Oil Corporation (BBB-/Stable), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BBB-/Stable), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (BBB-/Stable).

PT Pertamina (Persero) (BBB/Stable) could see rising government receivables from selling certain fuels below market rates, while refiners with ample domestic crude supply, such as Vietnam’s Binh Son (BB+/Stable), are less exposed.

Rising gas prices may support thermal coal demand in East Asia if buyers switch from gas, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could spike if Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility shuts, given its roughly 20% share of global supply, favoring Australian and Indonesian exporters.

Newcastle coal futures have already jumped around 9% to $129 a ton as of 3 March 2026.

Gulf supply disruptions would also affect metals, though impacts are uneven.

Stronger aluminium prices may benefit Chinese producers, including Aluminum Corporation of China (BBB+/Stable) and China Hongqiao Group (BB+/Stable), thanks to stable power costs, while higher energy costs in Japan and South Korea could pressure margins.

Copper may see short-term price support, but higher shipping and energy expenses could squeeze profitability, whereas gold miners stand to gain from heightened geopolitical risk.

Steel producers could face rising unit costs from energy and logistics pressures, with exports to the Middle East about 15% of Chinese steel exports in 2025 potentially softening.

Fertilizer manufacturers may experience a mixed impact, as higher selling prices could be offset by sharply rising natural gas costs.

Chemicals producers face particularly high risk, as surging oil and gas prices would lift naphtha feedstock costs and compress margins, posing challenges for issuers with limited rating headroom, such as PTT Global Chemical Public Company (BBB-/Stable).

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