China’s EV surge weakens Venezuelan crude demand

February 06, 2026 (MLN): President Donald Trump’s push to secure Venezuela’s crude exports highlights Washington’s continued focus on heavy oil as a strategic asset.

However, warnings indicated that the long-term demand for Venezuelan oil, particularly from China, may be waning due to rapid shifts in energy consumption and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).

Currently, about 400,000–500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude flow to China, a fraction of the country’s total oil imports.

According to Rystad Energy, any disruption caused by US intervention would likely prompt Chinese refiners to turn to alternative discounted suppliers such as Iran or Russia.

This emphasizes a key reality: Venezuela relies on China more than China depends on Venezuela, a dynamic with significant geopolitical and environmental implications.

The real transformation is happening on Chinese roads.

Data from UK-based Rho Motion shows that over 11m of the 18.5m electric vehicles sold globally in 2025 were purchased in China.

More than half of the world’s new EVs are now charging in Chinese cities instead of fueling at gas stations.

Chinese EV sales grew approximately 40% year-on-year by 2024, even as Western markets slowed.

Experts like Li Shuo highlight this shift as decisive, noting that EVs have moved beyond a luxury niche to become an integral part of daily life across China from major megacities to smaller towns, as reported by ECO.

Each battery powered vehicle reduces oil consumption and carbon emissions, and Chinese now believe that oil demand in the transport sector may have already peaked, even as aviation and petrochemical sectors continue to rely on fossil fuels.

For Venezuelan oil planners, the numbers are sobering.

US efforts to claim Venezuela’s heavy crude could backfire as China adjusts its supply chains, shifting toward other sources.

Long-term projections indicate that China’s overall oil demand will plateau and eventually decline, driven by growth in EVs, high-speed trains, and renewable heating systems.

While Washington treats Venezuelan crude as a strategic prize, China’s energy transition shows a future with diminishing reliance on imported heavy oil largely powered by renewables.

China is not just swapping engines for batteries.

The country is expanding its clean energy infrastructure to support EVs and industrial growth.

According to Global Energy Monitor, China currently has more than 1,400 gigawatts of operating solar and wind capacity and is building an additional 510 gigawatts.

The government aims to reach around 3,600 gigawatts of total installed renewable capacity in the next decade, roughly six times its 2020 levels.

Nuclear and fusion energy development further reinforce China’s shift toward becoming an “electrostate” rather than a petrostate.

By contrast, the US approach prioritizes heavy oil reliance at a time when global demand may be flattening.

Warnings suggested that this “petrostate” strategy could slow America’s energy transition and prolong the use of carbon-intensive fuels, worsening climate risks such as heat waves, floods, and hurricanes.

China’s electrification and renewable push won’t solve the climate crisis alone it still consumes significant coal and industrial emissions remain high but the trajectory is clear.

Oil demand from transport has peaked, and the power grid is steadily getting cleaner.

Venezuelan crude is becoming increasingly irrelevant in this shifting global energy landscape.

For a world deciding between new pipelines and more charging infrastructure, China’s EV revolution offers a stark lesson: the center of energy gravity is moving east, and reliance on fossil fuels is gradually losing its dominance.

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