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Palm oil set for steepest monthly decline since 2008 financial crisis

Palm oil set for steepest monthly decline since 2008...

June 30, 2022: Malaysian palm oil futures firmed on Thursday ahead of June export data, but worries over declining shipments and rising production set the contract for its biggest monthly slump since the 2008 financial crisis.

The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 12 ringgit, or 0.24%, to 4,915 ringgit ($1,116.54) a tonne during early trade.

For the month, the contract plunged 22%, its sharpest drop since October 2008.

FUNDAMENTALS

Cargo surveyors are expected to release estimates for June exports later in the day. Traders are expecting shipments to remain weak amid top producer Indonesia's push to boost exports.

Industry groups have so far pegged a double-digit growth in production this month, although temporary mill closures in some parts of Malaysia due to declining palm prices may hurt output. 

Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 0.2%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 eased 0.02%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 were up 0.2%.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Palm oil may test a support at 4,742 ringgit per tonne, as it could have completed a bounce from the recent low of 4,493 ringgit, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. TECH/C

MARKET NEWS

Asian shares were ending a rough quarter in a somber mood on Thursday amid fears central banks' cure for inflation will end up sickening the global economy, though it is proving to be a fillip for the safe-haven dollar and government bonds. 

Reuters

Asian shares end quarter in somber mood

Asian shares end quarter in somber mood, dollar on...

June 30, 2022: Asian shares were ending a rough quarter in a somber mood on Thursday amid fears central banks' cure for inflation will end up sickening the global economy, though it is proving to be a fillip for the safe-haven dollar and government bonds.

Policymakers on Wednesday reiterated their commitment to controlling inflation no matter what pain it caused, and data on U.S. core prices later in the session will only underline the extent of the challenge.

"Inflation can be sticky," warned analysts at ANZ. "It is broadening from goods to services and wage growth is accelerating."

"Even with rapid rate rises, it will take time for tightness in labor markets to unwind, and that means inflation can stay higher for longer."

That suggests it is too early to pick a peak for interest rates or a bottom for stocks, even though markets have already fallen a long way.

The S&P 500 has lost almost 16% this quarter, its worst performance since the very start of the pandemic, while the Nasdaq is off an eye-watering 21%.

Early Thursday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.3% with little sign as yet that the new quarter will bring in brave bargain hunters.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased another 0.4%, bringing its losses for the quarter to 10%.

Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8%, though its drop this quarter has been a relatively modest 4% thanks to a weak yen and the Bank of Japan's dogged commitment to super-easy policies.

The need for stimulus was underscored by data showing Japanese industrial output dived 7.2% in May when analysts had looked for a dip of only 0.3%.

Chinese blue chips added 0.6% helped by a survey showing a marked pick up in services activity.

Analysts at JPMorgan are looking for a major rebound in China in the coming months and felt that, with so much bad news priced into world markets, positioning argued for a bounce.

"It is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape, but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster, and if that does not materialize risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half," they wrote in a note.

DOLLAR IN DEMAND

For now, the risk of recession was enough to bring U.S. 10-year yields back to 3.085% from their recent peak at 3.498%, though that is still up 77 basis points for the quarter.

The yield curve has continued to flatten, and turned negative in the three- to the seven-year range, while futures are almost fully priced for another Federal Reserve hike of 75 basis points in July.

The Fed's hawkishness has combined with an investor desire for liquidity in difficult times and gifted the U.S. dollar its best quarter since late 2016. The dollar index was trading up at 105.100 and just a whisker from its recent two-decade peak of 105.79.

The euro was struggling at $1.0442, having shed 5.6% for the quarter so far, though it remain just above the May trough of $1.0348.

The Japanese yen is in even worse shape, with the dollar has gained more than 12% this quarter to 136.70 and hitting its highest since 1998.

Rising interest rates and a high dollar have not been good for non-yielding gold which was stuck at $1,818 an ounce having lost 6% for the quarter. 

Oil prices were flat on Thursday amid concerns about an unseasonable slowdown in U.S. gasoline demand, even as global supplies remain tight. 

OPEC and OPEC+ end two days of meetings on Thursday with little expectation they will be able to pump much more oil despite U.S. pressure to expand quotas.

September Brent rose 2 cents to $112.47 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 5 cents to $109.73.

Reuters

Pakistan needs to policy rate by 50bps to unlock IMF deal

Pakistan needs to increase policy rate by 50bps to...

June 30, 2022 (MLN): Though Pakistan is closer to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, but the country would probably have to increase fuel prices and the policy rate by 50 bps next quarter before it receives IMF cash, Bloomberg reported.

Firstly, at a scheduled review on July 1, the two-month-old government would probably have to raise pump prices, according to local media, after already raising them by 60%.

Then, to keep inflation in check, Bloomberg Economics predicts the State Bank of Pakistan will increase its policy rate by 50 basis points next quarter after 675 basis points of hikes since September, taking it to a terminal 14.25%, the report said.

To note, the IMF has shared draft policies, which will be assessed by Pakistani officials in order to reach a staff-level agreement in the coming days, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has said.

He says the IMF could agree to pay out a total $1.9 billion, however, the fund hasn’t responded to a request for comment.

 

Copyright Mettis Link News

NBP issues foreign exchange rate

June 30, 2022: Treasury management division of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) on...
Savyour launches #NotSoSmall initiative to support MSMEs

Savyour launches #NotSoSmall initiative to support MSMEs

June 29, 2022: Savyour, Pakistan’s first and largest cashback app, launched its #NotSoSmall initiative on the United Nation’s Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Day to extend additional support to the hundreds of small and medium businesses that are currently partnered with the platform.

Through a week-long campaign, Savyour will be helping partner brands reach a wider audience through mentorship hours by business heads free of charge digital/in-app marketing and cashbacks upsurge to provide consumers with added incentive.

Since its launch in 2020, Savyour has been helping small and medium businesses from all over Pakistan grow, by providing them with a marketing channel that requires zero upfront investment and only charges them a commission for every sale made through the platform. For consumers, this enables them to discover lesser-known brands that have unique offerings at great price points. Till date, over 80% of the brands listed on Savyour fall under the small/medium business category.

The #NotSoSmall initiative has been launched as a long-term effort by the platform to give assistance to smaller businesses that may get hit harder by the current local and global economic conditions. Often referred to as ‘the backbone of our economies’, approximately 3.25 million SMEs account for nearly 90% of all the businesses operating in Pakistan. This sector holds nearly 40% of the country's annual GDP.

Saad Gadit, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer, Savyour, said “MSMEs play a crucial role in any nation’s growth - not just for the economy, but also for the respective communities they serve. They are a part of several aspects of our day-to-day lives whether it's through the consumers they cater to or the employment opportunities they create. When it comes to expansion in this day and age, technology can help bridge the gap for them and that’s where Savyour comes in. We had started off with a clear goal of empowering the smaller sized businesses of Pakistan, and this initiative is a reinforcement of our commitment. These are challenging times for enterprises, but we have immense respect for their resilience and by offering our support, we hope to play our part in enabling their success”.

Press Release

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