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PSMC raises prices of its three models by Rs...

August 9, 2020 (MLN): Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) has revised the retail prices of some of its vehicles, with the change taking effect from August 10, 2020.

According to a notice addressed to all authorized dealerships, the price of Suzuki Bolan VX IM has been increased by Rs. 35,000 to Rs. 1,134,000. The price of Suzuki Bolan Cargo has also been revised up by Rs. 35,000 to Rs. 1,075,000.

Similarly, the price of Suzuki Ravi STD IM has been increased by Rs. 35,000 to Rs. 1,034,000.

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Weekly Market Roundup

Equity:

The KSE-100 index gained merely 771 points in the departed week and closed at 40,029-mark i.e. nearly 1.96% percent higher than the closing of the previous week.

“The market commenced on a positive note given further decline in COVID-19 cases post-Eid ul Adha. However, bears took over after higher than expected inflation of 9.30% was reported. Although this was short-lived as the market rebounded the very next day amid release of cement offtake data for Jul’20, depicting a stunning jump of 41% YoY followed by a decline in the trade deficit (by 15% YoY in Jul’20) and surge in SBP’s foreign reserves (by USD 567mn on weekly basis). Moreover, approval of key projects (ML-1 Railway up-gradation worth PKR 11.44tn under CPEC by ECNEC along with 4 projects by CDWP worth PKR 16.1bn) kept the momentum strong”, Arif Habib Limited stated in its weekly report.

Commercial Banks and Cement emerged as the best performing sectors during the week, as they contributed about 219 and 198 points respectively to the benchmark index. Company-wise, the scrips of HBL, TRG, LUCK, DAWH, and PIOC was the most desirable ones as they contributed 79, 65, 60, 45, and 43 points, respectively.

Figures released by NCCPL showed that foreign investors purchased USD 3.72 million worth of stocks during the week, with overseas Pakistanis doing the bulk of the purchasing.

On the local front, Individual Investors sold USD 41.1 million worth of stocks, while USD 29.3 million and USD 11.8 million worth of stocks were sold by Insurance Companies and Mutual Funds respectively.

Forex:

The trend for PKR reversed as it not only lost the gain it had made in the previous two weeks but an additional 55 paisa during the outgoing week to the US Dollar.

The 10-day volatility decreased slightly from 4.11% to 3.39% as the dollar was traded in a range of 168.60 (Bid) and 166.70 (Ask) and closed at 167.87

Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan showed that Pak Rupee's Real Effective Exchange Rate Index (REER) decreased by 4.3 percent in June 2020 to a provisional value of 93.02 from the revised value of 97.20 in May 2020.

A note by Ismail Iqbal Securities on the subject read “Near term outlook of an external account is not daunting due to limited current account deficit and persistent foreign debt flows, while REER is also close to all-time lows, thus we believe chances of any major currency depreciation are low in the short term.”

Money Market:

Higher than expected inflation pushed the yields up even further as 3, 6, and 12-month rate increased by 12, 17, and 21 basis points while longer-term bond yields were up significantly more with 3, 5, and 10-year yields up 29, 36 and 23 bps.

According to data released by the SBP, bond trades seem to have completely dried up in the secondary market as no trades were reported by the SBP since July 22, 2020.

Bond yields have gone up 72, 85, and 73 basis points for 3, 5, and 10 years in FY21.

Bank’s borrowing for the central bank continued as the SBP injected Rs.1,100 billion on Aug 03, 2020, for 4 days and Rs.1,228 billion for 10 days on Aug 07, 2020.

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SBP will credit Duty Drawback into exporters’ bank accounts...

August 09, 2020 (MLN): State Bank of Pakistan will be crediting the Duty Drawbacks directly into the bank accounts of the exporters from September 1, 2020, Abdul Razak Dawood announced on his social media account on Saturday.

Advisor to PM for Commerce and Investment said, ‘Exporters have always been wanting that their refunds go directly into their accounts from the SBP.’

In a series of tweets, he thanked SBP and Pakistan Customs for establishing the direct transfer of Duty Drawback, without any human involvement on the initiative of the Ministry of Commerce.

This is considered another trade facilitation initiative by Pakistan Custom.

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Weekly Economic Roundup

August 09, 2020 (MLN): The Weekly Economic Roundup summarises key economic and financial data releases for the week, providing a more context on the current economic situation of Pakistan.

  • Moody's Investors Service (“Moody's”)  on Saturday confirmed the Government of Pakistan's B3 local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings with a stable outlook.

  • Pakistan's Forex Reserves increased by USD 650.70 Million or 3.44% and the total liquid foreign reserves held by the country stood at USD 19,562.90 Million on Jul 30, 2020.

  • Pakistan's Yearly Inflation Rate (New Base 2015-16) in July 2020 was 9.30 percent compared to 8.59 percent in June 2020 and 8.40 percent in July 2019.

  • The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) has approved locust Emergency and Food Security Projects (LEAFS) for the uplift of the local agriculture sector and combating the locust threat in the country.

  • Pak Rupee's Real Effective Exchange Rate Index (REER) decreased by 4.3 percent in June 2020 to a provisional value of 93.02 from the revised value of 97.20 in May 2020.

  • Pakistan's trade deficit for the month of July 2020 was recorded at USD 1.64 billion compared to a deficit of USD2.12 billion from June 2020 showing an improvement of 22.64 percent.

  • Exports from Pakistan during the month of July’20 showed a growth of 5.8%, in dollar value terms, as compared to the same month last year.

  • Exports of Fish and Fish Products in July 2020 have increased by 50% YoY to US$26 million from US$17 million. Similarly, the export of Food Preparations increased by more than 300% to US$6.4M from US$1.44M.

  • Despite a challenging global environment, the country’s external account position remained stable during the fiscal year 2020. The current account deficit was reduced by 77.9% to $ 2.9 billion (1.1 % of GDP) against $ 13.4 billion last year (4.8 % of GDP).

  • Pakistan has resumed trade with China through Khunjerab Pass temporarily.

  • Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) shared the results of its Business Confidence Index (BCI) Survey – Wave 19, which shows that the overall Business Confidence Score (BCS) in Pakistan stands at 50 percent negative, a further drop by 5 percent from the already – 45 percent negative score in Wave 18 Survey conducted in August 2019. 

  • The non-government sector has borrowed a net sum of Rs.3.28 billion during the week ended July 24, 2020, which brings the cumulative net retirement for ongoing fiscal year FY2021 to Rs.89.97 billion. The net retirement as of prior week was recorded at Rs.93.26 billion.

  • The government of Pakistan has retired an additional sum of Rs.146.44 billion during the week ended July 24, 2020, which brings its total net retirement for ongoing fiscal year FY2021 to Rs.265.21 billion. As of prior week, the government had retired a net sum of Rs.118.77 billion.

  • Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved project for up-gradation of Pakistan Railways' existing Mainline-1 at the cost of over 6.8 billion dollars.

  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced the auction calendar for August – October 2020 in which it plans to raise Rs.3.59 trillion through the sale of Government Securities.

  • The new fiscal has started well for the cement sector as the cement despatches increased by a healthy 37.75 percent from 3.512 million tons in July 2019 to 4.838 million tons in July 2020 due to buoyancy in both exports and domestic market.

  • The overall volumetric sales of Oil and Marketing Companies (OMCs) in Pakistan increased by 3% MoM in July 2020 to stand at 1.66 million tons against 1.62 million tons in June 2020.

  • The overseas investors have shied away from the local market as the net sell-off of $124.35 million has been recorded by them during the month of July’20.

  • The rate of National Saving Schemes (NSS) has been increased in the range of 12 to 36 basis points.

  • FBR has collected Rs.300 billion in the first month of the current financial year i.e. July 2020, overshooting the target by a staggering Rs.57 billion, which is 125% of the assigned revenue target of Rs.243 billion.

  • Japan has extended grant assistance worth 318 million Japanese Yen to Pakistan for The Project for Human Resource Development Scholarship for the fiscal year 2020.

  • Council of Common Interests (CCI) has unanimously approved Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019.

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Key Pakistan Market Stats and Economic Indicators

Market Data and Economic Indicators

Weekly Performance
 Aug 07, 2020Jul 31, 2020
PKR InterBank167.8794166.9815
KSE100 Index40,029.6939,258.44
Avg Daily Volume638,132,679389,823,896
Gold (Karachi) Rs/10 gm113,169105,881
KIBOR 6M7.187.09
10Y PIB9.429.19
EUR1.17861.1772
GBP1.30521.308
CHF0.91230.9129
JPY105.898105.834
GOLD2034.211974.9
NY Light Crude41.1740.25
Open Market Rates
 Aug 07, 2020Jul 31, 2020
USD168.75167.50
EUR199.04197.49
GBP220.43219.44
JPY1.59451.5836
AED45.9845.63
SAR45.0844.74
SBP Data
T-Bill Auction Cutoff YieldJul 29, 2020Jul 15, 2020
3M6.95016.5598
6M7.09956.5700
12M7.14006.6001
PIB Auction Cutoff YieldJul 21, 2020Jun 24, 2020
3Y7.37007.9700
5Y8.37008.4400
10Y8.99008.9900
15Y9.75009.9000
20Y10.400010.5100
Interest Rate CorridorJun 26, 2020May 18, 2020
SBP Policy Rate7.008.00
SBP Reverse Repo Rate8.009.00
SBP Repo Rate6.007.00
Weekly Indicators
 Jul 30, 2020Jul 24, 2020
SBP FX Reserves *12,542.2011,975.60
Bank FX Reseves *7,020.706,936.60
Total FX Reserves *19,562.9018,912.20
 Jul 29, 2020Jul 23, 2020
SPI (Combined Group) **134.31133.89
Change - WoW (pct)0.310.21
Change - YOY (pct)10.1010.50
Monthly Indicators
 JulyJune
Consumer Price Index (Base 2015-16)135.38132.08
Change - MOM (pct)2.500.82
Change - YOY (pct)9.308.59
WholeSale Price Index (Base 2015-16)143.14135.80
Change - MOM (pct)5.41-0.32
Change - YOY (pct)3.230.93
Sensitive Price Indicator (Base 2015-16)133.32128.46
Change - MOM (pct)3.780.55
Change - YOY (pct)10.379.33
 JulyJune
Exports *2,000.001,599.00
Imports *3,640.003,719.00
Trade Balance *-1,640.00-2,120.00
 JuneMay
Home Remittances *2,466.281,866.37
 JuneMay
Total Foreign Investment *179.639.44
Quarterly Indicators
 Mar 31, 2020Dec 31, 2019
Pakistan's External Debt *109,948.92110,719.33
Annual Indicators
 FY20FY19
GDP Growth Rate-0.381.91
Agriculture2.670.58
Manufacturing-0.275.43
Commodity Sector-0.05-0.90
Services Sector-0.593.75
Trade Balance * (July - June)-23,183.00-31,805.00
Worker Remittances * (July - June)23,120.9721,739.40
Foreign Investment * (July - June)2,038.21-54.80
Annual Inflation Rate % (July - June)10.746.80
* Amount in USD Million
** Weekly SPI Data Data not released by PBS

 

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