Russia forecasts $80-$85 brent in 2024 due to OPEC+ cuts

December 27, 2023 (MLN): Russia expects Brent prices to average between $80 and $85 a barrel next year amid OPEC+ output cuts, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in a TV interview reported by Bloomberg.

The outlook is based on several analysts’ estimates and shaped forecasts for the nation’s social and economic development, Novak said on the state-run Rossiya 24 channel.

OPEC+ nations aren’t working to target a certain level for oil prices, Novak said.

“Our task is to balance supply and demand so that the industry works stably,” he said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, particularly de facto leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to reduce group production by 2.2 million barrels a day in the first quarter following a slump in crude prices.

That includes Russia’s pledge to deepen its export reductions of crude and products to 500,000 barrels from the previous 300,000 barrels.

“Russia is a responsible participant of the agreement” to cut output, Novak said. “Our companies fulfill their obligations.”

The nation’s producers have significantly changed their overseas business in the past two years, finding new markets amid the European embargo on Russian crude and oil products, and the price cap imposed by the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

China accounted for about 45%-50% of Russia’s crude and oil products shipments this year, while India’s share skyrocketed to about 40% from almost nothing two years earlier, Novak said.

Exports to Europe are expected to account for no more than 5% of the nation’s total overseas supplies this year, compared with as much as 45% in previous years, Novak said.