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CPI Preview: Inflation to fall below 14% YoY in May

Runup to budget FY25 may fuel KSE-100 rally

Runup to budget FY25 may fuel KSE-100 rally
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April 21, 2024 (MLN): The record-breaking stock market's benchmark KSE-100 Index may continue its leg higher leading up to the Budget FY25, history shows.

The index has yielded an average gain of 1.8% for investors who bought shares a month prior to the announcement of Federal budget.

Moreover, investors who bought shares two months prior saw an average return of 3.3%, while those who invested three months prior experienced a 5.8% return, data from the past 15 budgets compiled by Mettis Global show.

Before Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year Before 1 Month Before 2 Months Before 3 Months
FY10 -1.2% -9.9% 22.8%
FY11 -8.7% -7.5% 0.1%
FY12 4.8% 3.1% 2.0%
FY13 -1.9% 1.6% 6.0%
FY14 10.3% 19.3% 25.8%
FY15 2.0% 3.9% 11.2%
FY16 0.5% 7.1% 2.3%
FY17 5.4% 10.1% 14.7%
FY18 5.6% 8.1% 7.4%
FY19 0.8% 6.1% 2.2%
FY20 -0.2% -7.2% -11.0%
FY21 2.7% 11.5% -4.0%
FY22 6.9% 7.4% 10.3%
FY23 -2.0% -9.0% -3.8%
FY24 2.0% 5.2% 0.3%
Average Return 1.8% 3.3% 5.8%
 

Meanwhile, post-budget, the KSE-100 index has displayed a mixed trend.

The local bourse recorded a meager 0.3%, 2.5%, and 1.7% average return over the next one, two, and three months respectively, after the budget announcement.

After Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year After 1 Month After 2 Months After 3 Months
FY10 8.9% 14.2% 28.3%
FY11 0.0% 7.8% 0.7%
FY12 2.0% -0.1% -9.5%
FY13 -0.5% 5.0% 9.9%
FY14 3.2% 4.1% 3.0%
FY15 0.7% 2.7% -3.4%
FY16 4.2% 5.6% 1.1%
FY17 1.5% 6.9% 6.8%
FY18 -12.0% -12.8% -19.7%
FY19 -7.6% -9.4% -7.6%
FY20 -2.3% -15.1% -12.1%
FY21 4.6% 17.2% 23.2%
FY22 -1.5% -2.4% -3.5%
FY23 -1.6% 0.2% -0.5%
FY24 5.5% 13.2% 9.2%
Average Return 0.3% 2.5% 1.7%
 

This gain would be on top of a 29,457 points or 71.1% surge in the current fiscal year, since the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s bailout program.

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Posted on: 2024-04-21T17:01:58+05:00