April 21, 2024 (MLN): The record-breaking stock market's benchmark KSE-100 Index may continue its leg higher leading up to the Budget FY25, history shows.
The index has yielded an average gain of 1.8% for investors who bought shares a month prior to the announcement of Federal budget.
Moreover, investors who bought shares two months prior saw an average return of 3.3%, while those who invested three months prior experienced a 5.8% return, data from the past 15 budgets compiled by Mettis Global show.
Before Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year
Before 1 Month
Before 2 Months
Before 3 Months
FY10
-1.2%
-9.9%
22.8%
FY11
-8.7%
-7.5%
0.1%
FY12
4.8%
3.1%
2.0%
FY13
-1.9%
1.6%
6.0%
FY14
10.3%
19.3%
25.8%
FY15
2.0%
3.9%
11.2%
FY16
0.5%
7.1%
2.3%
FY17
5.4%
10.1%
14.7%
FY18
5.6%
8.1%
7.4%
FY19
0.8%
6.1%
2.2%
FY20
-0.2%
-7.2%
-11.0%
FY21
2.7%
11.5%
-4.0%
FY22
6.9%
7.4%
10.3%
FY23
-2.0%
-9.0%
-3.8%
FY24
2.0%
5.2%
0.3%
Average Return
1.8%
3.3%
5.8%
Meanwhile, post-budget, the KSE-100 index has displayed a mixed trend.
The local bourse recorded a meager 0.3%, 2.5%, and 1.7% average return over the next one, two, and three months respectively, after the budget announcement.
After Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year
After 1 Month
After 2 Months
After 3 Months
FY10
8.9%
14.2%
28.3%
FY11
0.0%
7.8%
0.7%
FY12
2.0%
-0.1%
-9.5%
FY13
-0.5%
5.0%
9.9%
FY14
3.2%
4.1%
3.0%
FY15
0.7%
2.7%
-3.4%
FY16
4.2%
5.6%
1.1%
FY17
1.5%
6.9%
6.8%
FY18
-12.0%
-12.8%
-19.7%
FY19
-7.6%
-9.4%
-7.6%
FY20
-2.3%
-15.1%
-12.1%
FY21
4.6%
17.2%
23.2%
FY22
-1.5%
-2.4%
-3.5%
FY23
-1.6%
0.2%
-0.5%
FY24
5.5%
13.2%
9.2%
Average Return
0.3%
2.5%
1.7%
This gain would be on top of a 29,457 points or 71.1% surge in the current fiscal year, since the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s bailout program.
