Runup to budget FY25 may fuel KSE-100 rally

Abdur Rahman | April 21, 2024 at 05:01 PM GMT+05:00
April 21, 2024 (MLN): The record-breaking stock market's benchmark KSE-100 Index may continue its leg higher leading up to the Budget FY25, history shows.
The index has yielded an average gain of 1.8% for investors who bought shares a month prior to the announcement of Federal budget.
Moreover, investors who bought shares two months prior saw an average return of 3.3%, while those who invested three months prior experienced a 5.8% return, data from the past 15 budgets compiled by Mettis Global show.
Before Budget KSE-100 Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Budget Year | Before 1 Month |
Before 2 Months |
Before 3 Months |
FY10 | -1.2% | -9.9% | 22.8% |
FY11 | -8.7% | -7.5% | 0.1% |
FY12 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
FY13 | -1.9% | 1.6% | 6.0% |
FY14 | 10.3% | 19.3% | 25.8% |
FY15 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 11.2% |
FY16 | 0.5% | 7.1% | 2.3% |
FY17 | 5.4% | 10.1% | 14.7% |
FY18 | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% |
FY19 | 0.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
FY20 | -0.2% | -7.2% | -11.0% |
FY21 | 2.7% | 11.5% | -4.0% |
FY22 | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% |
FY23 | -2.0% | -9.0% | -3.8% |
FY24 | 2.0% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
Average Return | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% |
Meanwhile, post-budget, the KSE-100 index has displayed a mixed trend.
The local bourse recorded a meager 0.3%, 2.5%, and 1.7% average return over the next one, two, and three months respectively, after the budget announcement.
After Budget KSE-100 Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Budget Year | After 1 Month |
After 2 Months |
After 3 Months |
FY10 | 8.9% | 14.2% | 28.3% |
FY11 | 0.0% | 7.8% | 0.7% |
FY12 | 2.0% | -0.1% | -9.5% |
FY13 | -0.5% | 5.0% | 9.9% |
FY14 | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% |
FY15 | 0.7% | 2.7% | -3.4% |
FY16 | 4.2% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
FY17 | 1.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
FY18 | -12.0% | -12.8% | -19.7% |
FY19 | -7.6% | -9.4% | -7.6% |
FY20 | -2.3% | -15.1% | -12.1% |
FY21 | 4.6% | 17.2% | 23.2% |
FY22 | -1.5% | -2.4% | -3.5% |
FY23 | -1.6% | 0.2% | -0.5% |
FY24 | 5.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% |
Average Return | 0.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
This gain would be on top of a 29,457 points or 71.1% surge in the current fiscal year, since the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s bailout program.
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Name | Price/Vol | %Chg/NChg |
---|---|---|
KSE100 | 156,690.00 300.16M | 0.33% 509.06 |
ALLSHR | 95,971.43 1,206.33M | 0.29% 280.61 |
KSE30 | 47,844.40 181.33M | 0.27% 130.01 |
KMI30 | 231,021.17 146.10M | 0.57% 1299.08 |
KMIALLSHR | 64,664.36 493.31M | 0.38% 244.28 |
BKTi | 42,017.66 87.64M | 0.11% 48.14 |
OGTi | 31,907.63 12.45M | -0.26% -84.13 |
Symbol | Bid/Ask | High/Low |
---|
Name | Last | High/Low | Chg/%Chg |
---|---|---|---|
BITCOIN FUTURES | 117,110.00 | 117,685.00 116,465.00 | 20.00 0.02% |
BRENT CRUDE | 68.04 | 68.59 67.92 | -0.43 -0.63% |
RICHARDS BAY COAL MONTHLY | 84.00 | 0.00 0.00 | -0.40 -0.47% |
ROTTERDAM COAL MONTHLY | 93.35 | 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00% |
USD RBD PALM OLEIN | 1,106.50 | 1,106.50 1,106.50 | 0.00 0.00% |
CRUDE OIL - WTI | 64.13 | 64.67 63.98 | -0.39 -0.60% |
SUGAR #11 WORLD | 16.45 | 16.59 16.39 | -0.11 -0.66% |
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