Runup to budget FY25 may fuel KSE-100 rally

Abdur Rahman | April 21, 2024 at 05:01 PM GMT+05:00

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April 21, 2024 (MLN): The record-breaking stock market's benchmark KSE-100 Index may continue its leg higher leading up to the Budget FY25, history shows.

The index has yielded an average gain of 1.8% for investors who bought shares a month prior to the announcement of Federal budget.

Moreover, investors who bought shares two months prior saw an average return of 3.3%, while those who invested three months prior experienced a 5.8% return, data from the past 15 budgets compiled by Mettis Global show.

Before Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year	Before 1 Month	Before 2 Months	Before 3 Months
FY10	-1.2%	-9.9%	22.8%
FY11	-8.7%	-7.5%	0.1%
FY12	4.8%	3.1%	2.0%
FY13	-1.9%	1.6%	6.0%
FY14	10.3%	19.3%	25.8%
FY15	2.0%	3.9%	11.2%
FY16	0.5%	7.1%	2.3%
FY17	5.4%	10.1%	14.7%
FY18	5.6%	8.1%	7.4%
FY19	0.8%	6.1%	2.2%
FY20	-0.2%	-7.2%	-11.0%
FY21	2.7%	11.5%	-4.0%
FY22	6.9%	7.4%	10.3%
FY23	-2.0%	-9.0%	-3.8%
FY24	2.0%	5.2%	0.3%
Average Return	1.8%	3.3%	5.8%

Meanwhile, post-budget, the KSE-100 index has displayed a mixed trend.

The local bourse recorded a meager 0.3%, 2.5%, and 1.7% average return over the next one, two, and three months respectively, after the budget announcement.

After Budget KSE-100 Performance
Budget Year	After 1 Month	After 2 Months	After 3 Months
FY10	8.9%	14.2%	28.3%
FY11	0.0%	7.8%	0.7%
FY12	2.0%	-0.1%	-9.5%
FY13	-0.5%	5.0%	9.9%
FY14	3.2%	4.1%	3.0%
FY15	0.7%	2.7%	-3.4%
FY16	4.2%	5.6%	1.1%
FY17	1.5%	6.9%	6.8%
FY18	-12.0%	-12.8%	-19.7%
FY19	-7.6%	-9.4%	-7.6%
FY20	-2.3%	-15.1%	-12.1%
FY21	4.6%	17.2%	23.2%
FY22	-1.5%	-2.4%	-3.5%
FY23	-1.6%	0.2%	-0.5%
FY24	5.5%	13.2%	9.2%
Average Return	0.3%	2.5%	1.7%

This gain would be on top of a 29,457 points or 71.1% surge in the current fiscal year, since the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s bailout program.

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Name	Price/Vol	%Chg/NChg
KSE100	170,450.62 91.46M	-0.03% -48.32
ALLSHR	103,138.04 203.13M	0.03% 34.94
KSE30	50,738.71 20.25M	-0.00% -0.99
KMI30	244,060.99 25.79M	-0.06% -144.18
KMIALLSHR	66,848.84 137.25M	-0.04% -24.18
BKTi	47,155.39 3.99M	0.05% 22.49
OGTi	35,136.21 1.49M	0.50% 173.65

Symbol	Bid/Ask	High/Low

Name	Last	High/Low	Chg/%Chg
BITCOIN FUTURES	84,685.00	85,430.00 84,495.00	325.00 0.39%
BRENT CRUDE	105.34	106.30 104.91	-1.26 -1.18%
RICHARDS BAY COAL MONTHLY	130.00	0.00 0.00	6.50 5.26%
ROTTERDAM COAL MONTHLY	137.10	0.00 0.00	-0.15 -0.11%
USD RBD PALM OLEIN	1,228.00	1,228.00 1,228.00	0.00 0.00%
CRUDE OIL - WTI	92.72	94.75 92.41	-1.89 -2.00%
SUGAR #11 WORLD	18.63	19.07 18.54	-0.17 -0.90%