PKR: Riding the seesaw

February 11, 2022 (MLN): While enduring a journey on a choppy trail, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) managed to close the week’s trade at 174.71 per USD in the interbank market, appreciating a gain of 16 paisa against yesterday's settlement of 174.87 per USD.

The rupee traded within a narrow range of 28 paisa per USD, observing an intraday high bid of 174.78 and an intraday low offer of 174.70.

During the week, the local unit fell by 22 paisa against the greenback, as the previous week was concluded at PKR 174.48 per USD.

The domestic unit could not hold its upward momentum after receiving $1 billion each from IMF and International Sukuk for more than two days as it witnessed a sharp fall of 38 paisa or 0.22% on Wednesday as it joined back its traditional trail of depreciation against US dollar unlikely to the market expectations wherein the currency experts anticipated a notable appreciation and stability. After taking a breather for a day, the currency saw a meagre correction by 0.09% on Friday.

Ahsan Mehanti, Director Arif Habib Group told Mettis Global that Rupee is falling on payments for $28.8bn trade deficit for Jul-Feb’22. Meanwhile, the elevated demand for dollars from Afghanistan which is still untraceable by regulators has stalled PKR to realize its true valuation in the interbank market.

Going forward, PKR will be traded within a 2% band for a few weeks as no major event is in pipeline, Asad Rizvi, the former Treasury Head at Chase Manhattan said.

He also highlighted that after receiving funds from IMF and issuance of Sukuk bonds, the net reserves with SBP surged by $1.61bn to $17.34bn.

However, it is below the December’21 level of $17.69bn and it is difficult to attain the August’21 level of $20.07bn due to higher imports. While net inflow is small to fill the gap, he added.

Meanwhile, the local unit has lost Rs17.16 against the USD from July’21 to date, Whereas, the rupee appreciated by PKR 1.8 in CY22, with the month-to-date (MTD) position showing a gain of 1.13%, as per data compiled by Mettis Global.

The month to date performance of PKR remained comparatively better against major currencies as the local unit appreciated by 1.75%, 1.61%, 1.47%, 1.37%, 1.39%, 0.38%, and 0.35% against AUD, EUR, CAD, CHF, CNY, GBP, and SAR, respectively.

Within the open market, PKR was traded at 176.20/177.20 per USD.

Alternatively, the currency lost 5 paisa to the Pound Sterling as the day's closing quote stood at PKR 236.96 per GBP, while the previous session closed at PKR 236.91 per GBP.

On the other hand, PKR's value strengthened by 75 paisa against EUR which closed at PKR 199.11 at the interbank today.

On another note, within the money market, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conducted an Open Market Operation (OMO) in which it injected Rs792.8 billion into the market for 7 days at 9.81 percent.

The overnight repo rate towards close of the session was 9.70/9.90 percent, whereas the 1-week rate was 9.80/9.90 percent.

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