Pakistan's GDP grows 1% in 2QFY24

March 28, 2024 (MLN): Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shown a nominal growth of 1.00% in 2QFY24 as compared to the revised growth of 2.5% in the previous quarter, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Thursday.

The GDP growth rate came in lower than expectations of around 2-3%.

To note, the Finance Ministry in its February economic outlook report had estimated 2QFY24 GDP growth to rise to around 3%, citing stronger manufacturing output and higher production of crops including cotton.

These estimates were approved in the 108th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting held on the same day.

Agriculture

During Q2 2023-24, Agriculture has shown a growth of 5.02% as compared to same period of last year mainly due to healthy growth in important crops (8.12%) because of significant growth in the final production of cotton, rice and maize, first estimate of wheat (6.7% increase in area) and cotton ginning (53.6%).

Livestock is at the same level while forestry and fishing have also retained their normal growth.

Industry

Industry in Q2, like Q1, has shown a negative growth (-0.84%) as compared to Q2 last year.

Mining & quarrying industry has witnessed negative growth of 4.17% because of decrease in production of gas (-5.04%), marble (-40.13%), limestone (-20%) etc. and decline in exploration cost.

Large scale manufacturing, which is based on Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has witnessed a positive growth of 0.35% due to increase in Cooking oil, Garments, Fertilizers, etc.

Electricity, gas and water supply industry has shown a positive growth of 1.54% because of increase in output of IPPs, Hydro and Nuclear plants.

Construction industry declined to -17.59% due to decrease in production of cement (-8.7%) and iron & steel (-2.5%) as well as decline in general government expenditure.

Services

Services industry has shown a nominal growth of 0.01% in Q2 of 2023-24. Detailed analysis of the industry reflects a mixed trend.

Wholesale and retail trade has witnessed a growth of 2.11% because of positive growth in agriculture output and LSM.

Transport and storage industry has increased by 1.13% because of increase in output of railways and road transport.

Due to high inflation, real growth in Information & Communication, Finance & Insurance and Public Administration and Social Security industries has become negative at 5.43%, 11.1% and 16.18% respectively.

Further, both Education and Human health and Social Work industries have posted negative growth at 0.85% and 2.53% respectively.

Other private services have been estimated at 3.63% on the basis of indicators received from the sources.

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