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MPS Preview: High for Longer

OMCs: PSO remains predominant in upturning industry’s volume

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July 2, 2020 (MLN): The overall volumetric sales of Oil and Marketing Companies (OMCs) in Pakistan ameliorated by 9% MoM in June 2020 to stand at 1.61 MTs against 1.48 MTs in May 2020.

On yearly basis, the total industry sales improved by 19% YoY when compared to 1.35 MTs in June 2019.

According to the report by ABA Ali Habib Securities, the improvement in MoM Fuel demand was mainly on the back of relaxation in nationwide locked down, resumption of economic activity and around 9% reduction in prices of petroleum products.

Category-wise, demand of motor fuel improved 14% MoM and 28% YoY to 786K MTs, while the HSD which is key fuel for transportation/freight, its demand increased by 10% MoM and 68% YoY to 752K MTs. On the other hand, sales volumes of furnace oil continued to see a declining trend as it plunged by 21% MoM and 69% YoY due to ban on imports and lower FO production by local refineries.

On an annual basis, the overall sale of OMCs during FY20 were recorded at 16.4mn MT as compared to 18.2mn MT in FY19 showing a decline of 10% YoY on account of slowdown in economic activity and impact of covid-19 outbreak.  MS sales during FY20 remained flat, while sales of HSD and FO saw a decline of 9% and 36% YoY respectively.

Company-wise, PSO remained the biggest contributor to the upturn in OMCs volumes, as it posted largest MoM growth of 35% to 842k MT during June’20 on the back of adequate availability of petroleum products as compared to its peer companies who faces shortage due to lower imports. The company’s MS sales grew by 44% MoM and 58.5% YoY, its HSD recorded an increase of 26% MoM and a massive 125% YoY, while, FO volumes of the company also grew by 145.5% MoM but declined by 81% YoY.

In FY20, the company’s total sales volume plunged by 5.3% to 7.2mn MT. The decline was mainly attributable to lower FO sales which dropped by 46% YoY. However, sale of MS and HSD inched up by 6% and 6.4% YoY respectively.

Consistent with the trend, APL’s total volume during June’20 surged by 12% MoM to stand at 155k MT. This rise can be attributable to company’s higher FO which augmented by 58% MoM, followed by 10% MoM increase in HSD volumes. While MS sale during the month declined by 8.3% MoM.

During FY20, APL saw a fall in its volume by 11% owing to decline in HSD volumes which shrunk by 17% followed by 7.3% decline in MS sales and 6.4% decline in FO sales.

SHEL also witnessed a growth of 8.5% MoM in its sales volume to 108k MT during the month mainly due to higher MS and HSD sales which rose by 8% and 6% MoM respectively.

While during FY20, the company’s volume shrunk by 13% YoY owing to decline in sales across all categories FO, MS and HSD by 70%, 12% and13% YoY respectively.

On the other hand, HASCOL’s total sales volume during the month under review recorded at 71k MT, showing a decline of 40% MoM against 118k MT reported in the same month last year. The decline in volumes can be linked to lower HSD and MS sales for the company which plummeted by 45% and 30% MoM.

In the preceding fiscal year (FY20), company’s total sales declined by 44% YoY owing to 82% reduction in FO sales, while its HSD and MS sales volume also contracted by 43% and 21% respectively.

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Posted on: 2020-07-02T22:58:00+05:00

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