Oil prices slightly rise amid OPEC+ extension of output cuts through 2026

December 06, 2024 (MLN): Global oil prices slightly increased on Friday, with weak demand in focus after the OPEC+ group postponed planned supply increases and extended deep output cuts to the end of 2026.

Brent crude traded near $72.13 a barrel, increased 0.06% ($0.04) on the day.

While West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $68.39 per barrel, up by 0.10% (0.05).

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.

The group, known as OPEC+ and responsible for about half of the world's oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand especially in China, and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.

"Sidelining the surprise drawdown in US crude stockpiles last week and OPEC+ extending plans to ramp up output until September 2026, oil prices eased further amid growing concerns over dented global demand and oversupplied markets," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

"With growing concerns over global demand for oil in 2025, even the softening of the US Dollar in the last couple of sessions doesn’t seem to mend the floor beneath oil prices," she said.

The latest extension puts OPEC+ output below major banks' previous forecasts, which could provide some support for the market going forward, analysts at energy-focused consultancy FGE said.

However, concerns that supply will still outstrip demand even going into next year weighed on prices further.

Macquarie analysts modeled Saudi Arabian oil production remaining in the low-9 million bpd range in 2025, but expected that even with that supply discipline the market would be oversupplied by more than 1 million bpd.

"Looking into next year, we forecast a heavy surplus, as non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to meet the below-trend demand growth, lowering the call on OPEC supply and limiting the need for OPEC+ to reverse voluntary cuts," they said in a client note.

Markets were also looking out for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, to see whether it would support expectations of a rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve's next meeting.

The market is pricing in a 72% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it meets on Dec. 17-18, up from 66.5% a week ago, CME FedWatch tool showed.

Clarity on rate cuts from the next Fed policy meeting might feed into demand forecasts for oil in 2025, said Phillip Nova's Sachdeva.

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