Oil prices rebound with $1 gain following OPEC+ output boost

May 06, 2025 (MLN): Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures increased by $1.37, or 2.27%, to $61.6 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.27, or 2.22%, to $58.4 per barrel by [1:05 pm] PST.  

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

"Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid U.S. tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the U.S., the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased, as Reuters reported.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.

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