Oil prices dip amid strong Dollar, weak China imports

November 07, 2024 (MLN): Global oil prices dropped for the second consecutive session as the surging US dollar and lower crude imports in China outweighed supply risks from a Trump presidency and potential output cuts.

Brent crude dropped over 1% to $74.37 a barrel after falling 0.5% yesterday.

While West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $71 per barrel, down by 1.2% on the day.

Donald Trump's election win initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil down more than $2 as the dollar rallied. But crude prices later pared losses to settle at a less than 1% decline by the end of Wednesday's session, Reuters reported.

Downside factors include a strong dollar and sluggish demand, while upside pressures come from potentially increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela under Trump, as well as conflict in the Middle East, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

"Some of these potential drivers will have no impact in the foreseeable future, but they all add up to the current narrative leading to rangebound trading," he said.

"Absent any major geopolitical escalation, the short-term outlook leans toward downside risk in my opinion."

The dollar held near four-month highs on Thursday as investors prepared for several central bank decisions, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices.

Cuba's national electrical grid collapsed Wednesday as Hurricane Rafael slammed into the island.

"Historically, Trump's policies have been pro-business, which likely supports overall economic growth and increases demand for fuel," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "However, any interference in the Fed's easing policies could lead to further challenges for the oil market."

Further downward pressure came from data showing that crude oil imports in China fell 9% in October - the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline - as well as from a rise in U.S. crude inventories.

Trump is expected to reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That could cut supply by as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Energy Aspects estimates.

In his first term, Trump also put in place harsher sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Those measures were briefly rolled back by the Biden administration but later reinstated.

Actual, rather than feared, supply cuts also lent support. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, about 17% of crude output or 304,418 bpd has been shut because of Hurricane Rafael, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

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