May 16, 2024 (MLN): Fitch Ratings estimates national home prices were 11.1% overvalued for Q4 CY23 on a population-weighted average basis, showing negligible difference from the previous quarter.
The consistency in Fitch’s overvaluation estimates, maintained from the last quarter, was underpinned by concurrent increases in the Home Price Index and Sustainable Home Price (SHP).
The increase in SHP for Q4 CY23 was primarily driven by the rise in rents. Meanwhile, other factors such as unemployment rates, mortgage rates, real income, and household growth remained comparatively stable, leading to a moderation in the SHP Index.
However, overvaluation still dominated nationwide. As of 4Q23, home prices in 90% of the country's MSAs were overvalued, with 56% of these areas by 10% or more.
The top three overvalued MSAs in the U.S. are Memphis, TN-MS-AR; Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY, Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN.
There are early signs of a correction in the U.S. housing market, as indicated by the uptick in both active and new property listings.
Challenges such as high mortgage rates and elevated home prices, which aggravate the affordability issue, continue to moderate the pace of this normalization.
In light of Fitch's Global Economic Outlook (March 2024), Fitch predicts that the Fed will postpone rate cut until its meeting on July 30-31, 2024, which is a delay from the previously anticipated June timeline.
Fitch also expects nominal national home prices to decelerate to 0%-3% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023, as per Fitch’s Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook (December 2023).
