November 15, 2018 (MLN): Moody’s recent report on Emerging Markets suggests that slower global growth, rising interest rates, trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions pose challenges for emerging markets in 2019.
According to the report, Pakistan's reserves adequacy is among the lowest of rated sovereigns, covering less than two months of imports as of September 2018.
Although the share of foreign currency debt is relatively low at around 35% of total government debt, declining foreign reserves because of a current account deficit of around 4%-5% of GDP raise repayment risks.
It is expected that the EVI will rise to 153% in 2019. Furthermore, successful negotiations for a new IMF programme would reduce external financing risks.
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