Global economy to contract 1.5 percent in 2020 amid COVID-19 outbreak: IIF

March 24, 2020: The global economy is expected to contract 1.5 percent in 2020 amid the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, according to the forecast released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) on Monday.

"We cut our global growth forecast from 2.6 to 0.4 percent in the last two weeks, but the building COVID-19 pandemic, the OPEC price war and mounting credit stress in advanced and emerging markets continue to reshape the picture in fundamental ways," the IIF said in a report.

"Our global growth forecast now stands at -1.5 percent, with a contraction of 3.3 percent across mature markets and growth of only 1.1 percent" in emerging markets, the report said, adding there is "huge uncertainty" about the economic impact of COVID-19.

"It is as of now unclear how long de facto shutdowns in many countries must last to contain the virus. And given the severity of the shock, it is also unclear if consumer and investment activity rebounds quickly once quarantines are lifted," the report said.

The report also suggested that both the United States and the euro area are already in recession, with negative growth in the first quarter and large contractions in the second quarter.

For the whole year, growth rates in the United States and the euro area are expected by the IIF to contract 2.8 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

The IIF, based in Washington D.C., is a global association of the financial industry with more than 450 members from more than 70 countries and regions.

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