CPI forecast: Surging food inflation and power tariffs to push up CPI by over 8%, YoY

MG News | February 28, 2019 at 01:20 PM GMT+05:00

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February 28, 2019 (MLN): As the second month of Calendar Year 2019 (CY19) nears end, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) moves on to the final stages of documenting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, which the organization will release in the first week of March 2019.

In anticipation of these results, various brokerage houses have put forward their projections as listed below:

Brokerage house	CPI projection (YoY)	CPI Projection (MoM)	CPI Projection (8MFY19)
Shajar Capital	8.12%	0.55%	6.44%
Spectrum Securities	8.10%	0.53%	6.45%
WE Financial Services	8.18%	0.6%	6.45%
Darson Securities	7.98%	0.43%	-
Pearl Securities	7.9%	0.4%	-
Insight Research	8.5%	0.9%	6.5%
Ismail Iqbal Securities	8%	0.55%	-
Foundation Securities	7.7%	0.1%	-
Arif Habib Limited	7.98%	0.43%	-
Sherman Securities	8.3%	0.8%	-

The headline inflation (CPI) is likely to clock within a range of 8.12%-8.18% YoY in Feb-19 as compared to 3.80% YoY in the same period last year, primarily due to low base effect.

On a MoM basis, CPI is expected to increase by around 0.4%-0.6% as compared to -0.31% in same period last year, primarily due to surge in food inflation by 1.31%.

Going forward, an upward momentum in inflation is expected to continue due to lagged impact of PKR devaluation. Furthermore, the impact of increase in gas and electricity prices will probably build up pressure on inflation.

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