Asian stocks fall on concern over Trump tariffs

November 12, 2024 (MLN): Asian shares dropped with European and US equity futures as traders weighed the impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and the make-up of his cabinet, Bloomberg reported.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for a third day as Treasury yields rose amid concern Trump’s initiatives such as tax cuts will bolster inflation.

Hong Kong shares led losses in Asia following reports the former president is poised to pick two men with track records of criticizing China for key positions in his new administration.

While the so-called Trump trade helps boost the dollar and US stocks, the impact of the former president’s policies are expected to be less positive on assets elsewhere in the world.

His plan to boost tariffs is set to weigh on economies around the globe, especially countries such as China which are major exporters to the US.

“There are question marks around another round of Trump tariffs, the deficit and upward pressure on the dollar, forcing the Fed to slow the pace of easing,” said Phillip Wool, head of portfolio management at Rayliant Global Advisors. “All of those anxieties seem to be registering more significantly with investors today and weighing on Asian shares.”

Treasury 10-year yields climbed as much as three basis points to 4.34% as trading of US government securities reopened in Asia following a US holiday on Monday.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2% after rising to a one-year high on Monday. Oil dropped following its biggest decline in two weeks.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped as much as 3.3%. Senator Marco Rubio — who has taken an aggressive stance on China’s emergence as an economic power — is expected to be named secretary of state, Bloomberg reported.

Representative Mike Waltz, who views China as a “greater threat” to the US than any other nation, is in line to be national security advisor.

“Trump’s reported appointments of well-known China hawks such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz are indeed weighing on the Hong Kong market’s sentiment,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier. “This underscores the high likelihood of Trump following through on his campaign pledge to implement punitive tariffs on China’s exports to the US.”

China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index swung to a loss after earlier drawing at least some support from a report saying the authorities are planning to cut taxes for home purchases to help revive a moribund housing market.

A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of developers’ shares climbed as much as 0.3% after the news, before falling back.

“It’s not enough to get investors excited about a housing recovery — the demand is not there and this doesn’t really stimulate demand,” said Sat Duhra, a fund manager at Janus Henderson Investors in Singapore. “Recent inflation shows that turning around this deflationary slide is more difficult to change and piecemeal measures won’t change the low confidence in China.”

Results from Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. this week will shed light on how their efforts to streamline businesses and lower costs have tided them over until Beijing stimulus can lift consumer spending.

The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher on Monday, hovering near the 6,000 mark and notching its 51st record this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%.

The next major item on the agenda looks to be US inflation figures due Wednesday. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, likely rose at the same pace on both a monthly and annual basis compared with September’s readings.

US stocks may rally more into year-end following Trump’s presidential election victory than they did when he won the presidency eight years ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“I expect 2024 returns to be larger than 2016,” Andrew Tyler, the bank’s head of US market intelligence, wrote in a note to clients.

A big advantage for the S&P 500 is weakness outside the US, with China, the UK, EU, Canada and Mexico all experiencing softer growth than they did back then.

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