Asian stock markets drop as South Korea faces political unrest

December 04, 2024 (MLN): Asian equities stumbled on Wednesday while currencies were volatile as traders scrambled to contend with the political storm in South Korea, as reported by Reuters.

In South Korea martial law was imposed and subsequently lifted hours later.

South Korea's won strengthened in early trading buoyed by suspected intervention but remained close to the two-year low against the dollar it hit late on Tuesday.

The benchmark KOSPI index was down nearly 2%, taking its year-to-date losses to over 7%, making it Asia's worst-performing major stock market this year.

That left the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which counts Samsung Electronics as one of its top constituents, down 0.32% on Wednesday.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Wednesday he would lift a surprise martial law declaration he had imposed just hours before, backing down in a standoff with parliament which roundly rejected his attempt to ban political activity.

"Martial law itself has been lifted but this incident creates more uncertainty in the political landscape and the economy," said Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING.

"We are concerned that these events could impact South Korea's sovereign credit rating, although this is uncertain at this stage. However, this is a scenario that could happen."

South Korea's finance ministry said it was prepared to deploy "unlimited" liquidity into financial markets if needed, with the Yonhap news agency saying the financial regulator was ready to deploy 10 trillion won ($7.07 billion) in a stock market stabilization fund.

"A bit of uncertainty here given how the events played that can fuel some rush to safety. But Korean authorities appear to be moving quickly to stabilize markets, and the impact is likely to be short-lived," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.

Still, the jolt to the market from East Asia stoked further worries of uncertainties around the globe, with investors already reeling from the political turmoil in France that has weighed on the euro, which was down 0.11% at $1.04975.

French bond futures fell 0.13% while European stock futures were 0.14% lower ahead of French lawmakers' vote on Wednesday on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

"If the government collapses, an emergency legislation will likely be adopted to avoid a government shutdown the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields can further move against the euro," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

On the macro side, investors are hoping for more cues to gauge the policy path the Federal Reserve will likely take next year, with the much-anticipated November employment report due on Friday.

U.S. job openings increased solidly in October while layoffs dropped by the most in 1 and 1/2 years, data showed on Tuesday.

The data further suggested the labor market continued to slow in an orderly fashion although another survey showed employers were hesitant to hire more workers.

Markets are now ascribing a 72% chance of a 25-basis point cut this month, with 80 bps of cuts expected by the end of next year.

U.S. central bankers said they continue to believe inflation is heading down to their 2% target and signaled support for further rate cuts ahead, but none pushed strongly for or against doing so when they next meet to set rates in two weeks.

The spotlight now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday who will give what are expected to be his last public remarks before the meeting.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was up 0.12% at 106.45. Gold prices eased 0.17% to $2,639 on a strong dollar.

Oil prices were flat after gaining more than 2% in the previous session as Israel threatened to attack the Lebanese state if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, and as investors positioned for OPEC+ to announce an extension of supply cuts this week.

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