Oil nears $100 as US-Iran military escalation fears grow

November 06, 2026 (MLN): Oil prices edged higher on Friday as markets assessed the possibility of renewed military confrontation between the United States and Iran following the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections, while also monitoring prospects for a diplomatic settlement.

Currently, Brent crude futures is up, 1.12%, at $99.41 per barrel, according to data by Mettis Global.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures is up by $0.56, or 0.62%, to $91.08 per barrel by [10:40 am] PST.

Investors are weighing whether the end of the midterm elections could allow Washington to resume military action against Tehran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East, according to CNBC.

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia that there is an 80% probability of military hostilities resuming. He expects both major oil benchmarks to potentially exceed $100 per barrel.

Meanwhile, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have provided some relief to markets after Iran reportedly submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official.

Supply concerns have also intensified following Iran's report of three additional attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) further indicated that attacks on vessels were continuing at a near-record pace.

McNally said U.S. President Donald Trump remains determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and wants Tehran to abandon its nuclear capabilities.

However, he noted that Iran's leadership remains unwilling to accept these conditions, leaving the fundamental disagreement unresolved and increasing the likelihood of further escalation.

Similar concerns have also been expressed by other analysts, including Lombard Odier Chief Economist Samy Chaar and Head of Investment Strategy Luca Bindelli.

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