The Pump Stays, the Stop Gets Longer

October 27, 2026 (MLN): People often ask me whether electric vehicles will put filling stations out of business. My answer is no. But they will change what a station sells, how long its customers stay and how it earns its money.

Electric mobility is no longer a distant idea in Pakistan. You can see it in the sales figures and on our streets, where battery swapping pilots are already running. To understand what it means for fuel retail, it helps to start with the economics of the forecourt.

Pakistan at a glance

•      Electric two-wheeler sales: about 112,000 units in 2025, according to industry figures, with around 90,000 more sold between April and June 2026 alone.

•      Total motorcycle sales: a record 1.93 million units in FY26.

•      Running cost: roughly Rs1 to Rs2 per kilometre for an electric motorcycle, against Rs5 to Rs7 for petrol, based on published estimates.

•      EV charging tariff: a NEPRA base rate of Rs23.57 per unit, plus a market-determined margin.

1. The difference that matters: time

A typical fuel stop takes about five minutes. A charging session takes twenty to thirty minutes on a fast charger, and several hours on a slower one.

This difference in "dwell time" is, in my view, the most important factor in the future economics of the forecourt. A customer who passes through buys fuel. A customer who waits has time to buy far more.

2. Two new sources of income

Energy. Electricity is sold alongside fuel, from the same land and under the same canopy. In April 2025, NEPRA cut the base tariff for charging stations from Rs45.55 to Rs23.57 per unit, with operators free to add a market-determined margin. Fuel cost adjustments do not apply, so costs are predictable, and that is what investors need before they commit capital.

Non-fuel retail. This is likely to be the larger opportunity. A driver waiting twenty minutes is a natural customer for a coffee, a meal, groceries or a car wash. McKinsey projects that the global value of non-fuel forecourt retail will grow from about $22 billion in 2019 to $30 billion by 2030, while the value of fuel itself declines. In a UK survey by Kalibrate, 59 percent of EV drivers said they spend more at businesses that offer charging.

Charging works alongside fuel, and every extra minute a customer spends on site adds value to the shop, the café and the car wash.

3. Pakistan's transition will start on two wheels

Motorcycles make up roughly four in five vehicles on Pakistan's roads, and the transition is following that pattern. Electric two-wheeler sales rose by about 173 percent in the first half of 2026, driven by global oil price volatility and government support through subsidies and interest-free financing.

For a rider covering forty to sixty kilometres a day, an electric motorcycle costs a quarter or less as much to run as a petrol one. Dawn estimates the annual saving at around Rs70,000 per bike, enough to recover the higher purchase price in under two years.

For the country, the impact is meaningful. Motorcycles use roughly a quarter of Pakistan's petrol, yet electrifying five million of them would add only around 1 to 2 percent to national electricity demand.

4. Why filling stations are well placed

Much of what electric mobility needs already exists on the forecourt. Stations have land at busy intersections and along highways, a grid connection that can be upgraded, canopy roofs suitable for solar, and customers who are already in the habit of stopping there. For an operating network, adding charging means upgrading sites that already exist.

Two models suit Pakistan particularly well. The first is battery swapping: in August 2026, Punjab opened its first public e-bike battery swapping station in Faisalabad, where a swap takes under a minute, with plans for 50 cabinets across the city by December 2026.

Forecourts, with space, power and round-the-clock operations, are natural hosts. The second is fleet charging, where long-term contracts with delivery, ride-hailing and logistics operators can give a site steady utilisation from the start.

5. What other markets have learnt

India. Oil marketing companies have installed more than 27,400 EV charging points at petrol pumps, with early chargers focused on two- and three-wheelers, a market much like ours.

Thailand. PTT Oil and Retail built the Café Amazon coffee chain on its forecourts. In the first quarter of 2025, its non-oil businesses contributed about 27.5 percent of EBITDA.

China. Sinopec partnered with the carmaker NIO to place battery swap stations at its fuel sites, building more than 100 within two years.

In each case, charging succeeded because it was built into a wider retail offer.

6. The policy framework

The National Electric Vehicle Policy 2025-30 sets a clear direction:

•      Adoption: a target of 30 percent of new vehicle sales being electric by 2030.

•      Subsidies: more than Rs100 billion over the policy period for electric motorcycles and rickshaws.

•      Infrastructure: charging stations along the motorways and EV charging points in new building codes, with a national target of 3,000 charging stations by 2030.

With the revised tariff, investors now have both a direction and a price to plan around.

7. Getting it right

Turning this opportunity into a sound business comes down to a few practical choices. The first sites should go where demand is already visible, on motorways, in commercial districts and along fleet routes. Each site's grid capacity needs to be assessed, with solar and storage used to support supply where needed. Investment works best in phases, starting with pilot sites, learning from usage data and building partnerships with vehicle makers, battery providers and fleet operators.

Design matters as much as power. Chargers belong within sight of the shop and the seating, and food, Wi-Fi and clean facilities should be treated as part of the core offer. A charge that takes twenty minutes must offer twenty minutes' worth spending.

8. Fuel remains the core

None of this suggests a sudden shift. Fuel will remain the core of the retail business for many years. Heavy transport, agriculture and most of the existing fleet will continue to depend on it. Demand will change along a curve, not off a cliff.

The real opportunity is in serving both customers at once. Stations that add energy and services now will be ready for the fuel customer of today and the electric customer of tomorrow.

The pump stays. The stop gets longer. And in that longer stop lies a new source of value for Pakistan's fuel retail sector.

 About Author:

The writer, Javed Ahmedjee is a Fellow Chartered Accountant who has spent more than 35 years in senior leadership roles across energy, financial services and pharmaceuticals, working in Pakistan, Sub-Saharan Africa and the United Kingdom, and currently serves as CEO of Hascol Petroleum Limited.

Disclaimer:

The above analysis/article is for informational and educational purposes only.

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